How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Republicans managed to flip one seat in South Texas: the 15th District. Just now, ABC News projected a win for Republican Monica De La Cruz over Democrat Michelle Vallejo. (De La Cruz leads Vallejo 53 percent to 45 percent, with 89 percent of the expected vote in.) To be clear, Republicans were always going to have an edge in this race. Not only was the district recently redrawn to be more favorable to the GOP, but national Republicans flooded the airwaves with TV ads attacking Vallejo for being too progressive.

ABC News projects that Democrat Tony Evers will win the governor race in Wisconsin.

The New York Times needle projects that Fetterman is eventually going to win by around 4 points. So while it’s not a catastrophically bad polling error if your survey had Oz winning by 1 or 2 points, as a lot of GOP-leaning firms did, you are winding up with a 5- or 6-point miss, which is basically in “Hillary in Wisconsin” territory.