How Election Week 2022 Went Down
The New York Times needle projects that Fetterman is eventually going to win by around 4 points. So while it’s not a catastrophically bad polling error if your survey had Oz winning by 1 or 2 points, as a lot of GOP-leaning firms did, you are winding up with a 5- or 6-point miss, which is basically in “Hillary in Wisconsin” territory.
Fetterman is projected to win Pennsylvania’s Senate seat, an important seat flip in a highly competitive race. We’re tracking Democrats’ performance by county, and the particularly noticeable shifts are in counties like Allegheny, Washington and Erie.
Pennsylvania Senate results vs. benchmarks
How the parties are performing in each county or county equivalent compared with benchmarks based on the vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 1:22 a.m. Eastern
| Locality | Statewide vote share | Benchmark vote margin | Exp. vote | Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 10.7% | D+62.4 | 69% | D+64.4 | D+2.0 |
| Allegheny | 10.4 | D+19.3 | 95 | D+28.4 | D+9.1 |
| Montgomery | 7.4 | D+25.1 | 95 | D+28.1 | D+3.0 |
| Bucks | 5.7 | D+3.2 | 93 | D+4.8 | D+1.6 |
| Delaware | 4.7 | D+25.6 | 37 | D+28.9 | D+3.3 |
| Chester | 4.5 | D+15.9 | 79 | D+3.8 | R+12.1 |
| Lancaster | 4.1 | R+17.0 | 95 | R+16.8 | D+0.2 |
| York | 3.4 | R+25.8 | 95 | R+21.6 | D+4.2 |
| Berks | 3.0 | R+9.4 | 95 | R+6.3 | D+3.1 |
| Westmoreland | 3.0 | R+29.6 | 99 | R+19.6 | D+9.9 |
| Lehigh | 2.7 | D+6.4 | 95 | D+10.1 | D+3.7 |
| Northampton | 2.5 | R+0.5 | 99 | D+3.1 | D+3.5 |
| Luzerne | 2.2 | R+15.6 | 95 | R+8.9 | D+6.6 |
| Dauphin | 2.1 | D+7.4 | 95 | D+9.9 | D+2.6 |
| Cumberland | 2.0 | R+11.8 | 95 | R+5.8 | D+5.9 |
| Erie | 2.0 | R+0.2 | 95 | D+9.4 | D+9.6 |
| Washington | 1.7 | R+24.0 | 99 | R+14.2 | D+9.8 |
| Lackawanna | 1.7 | D+7.2 | 98 | D+15.8 | D+8.6 |
| Butler | 1.6 | R+33.7 | 99 | R+25.8 | D+7.9 |
| Beaver | 1.4 | R+18.9 | 80 | R+24.8 | R+5.9 |
| Monroe | 1.2 | D+5.2 | 95 | D+5.7 | D+0.5 |
| Franklin | 1.2 | R+44.3 | 95 | R+41.8 | D+2.5 |
| Centre | 1.1 | D+3.6 | 94 | D+7.1 | D+3.5 |
| Lebanon | 1.0 | R+33.0 | 95 | R+28.4 | D+4.6 |
| Schuylkill | 1.0 | R+41.0 | 95 | R+32.6 | D+8.4 |
| Cambria | 1.0 | R+38.5 | 95 | R+31.2 | D+7.3 |
| Blair | 0.9 | R+44.7 | 95 | R+43.8 | D+0.9 |
| Fayette | 0.9 | R+34.6 | 95 | R+23.2 | D+11.4 |
| Lycoming | 0.9 | R+42.5 | 95 | R+39.7 | D+2.8 |
| Mercer | 0.8 | R+27.2 | 95 | R+23.2 | D+4.0 |
| Adams | 0.8 | R+35.3 | 95 | R+28.9 | D+6.4 |
| Lawrence | 0.7 | R+30.7 | 95 | R+22.1 | D+8.6 |
| Northumberland | 0.6 | R+39.7 | 95 | R+32.0 | D+7.7 |
| Crawford | 0.6 | R+38.4 | 93 | R+37.3 | D+1.1 |
| Indiana | 0.6 | R+38.7 | 95 | R+29.9 | D+8.8 |
| Somerset | 0.6 | R+57.5 | 95 | R+51.6 | D+5.8 |
| Clearfield | 0.6 | R+50.7 | 88 | R+56.5 | R+5.8 |
| Armstrong | 0.5 | R+53.5 | 95 | R+42.0 | D+11.5 |
| Carbon | 0.5 | R+33.2 | 99 | R+23.8 | D+9.4 |
| Pike | 0.5 | R+20.2 | 95 | R+20.4 | R+0.2 |
| Columbia | 0.5 | R+31.9 | 95 | R+26.0 | D+5.8 |
| Bradford | 0.4 | R+46.1 | 95 | R+41.7 | D+4.4 |
| Wayne | 0.4 | R+34.8 | 95 | R+30.7 | D+4.1 |
| Bedford | 0.4 | R+68.9 | 99 | R+65.2 | D+3.7 |
| Venango | 0.4 | R+42.6 | 95 | R+33.0 | D+9.6 |
| Perry | 0.4 | R+51.3 | 95 | R+42.6 | D+8.6 |
| Jefferson | 0.3 | R+60.0 | 95 | R+52.2 | D+7.8 |
| Huntingdon | 0.3 | R+52.2 | 95 | R+47.3 | D+4.8 |
| Susquehanna | 0.3 | R+42.4 | 95 | R+37.6 | D+4.9 |
| Mifflin | 0.3 | R+57.3 | 99 | R+51.3 | D+6.0 |
| Tioga | 0.3 | R+52.4 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+3.3 |
| Warren | 0.3 | R+40.8 | 56 | R+21.7 | D+19.0 |
| Union | 0.3 | R+25.5 | 95 | R+20.7 | D+4.7 |
| Clarion | 0.3 | R+52.0 | 99 | R+42.2 | D+9.8 |
| McKean | 0.3 | R+47.3 | 95 | R+42.0 | D+5.4 |
| Snyder | 0.3 | R+48.6 | 99 | R+43.4 | D+5.2 |
| Clinton | 0.3 | R+37.5 | 95 | R+29.9 | D+7.6 |
| Greene | 0.3 | R+44.6 | 80 | R+46.9 | R+2.3 |
| Elk | 0.2 | R+46.2 | 95 | R+38.5 | D+7.8 |
| Wyoming | 0.2 | R+36.4 | 95 | R+28.9 | D+7.5 |
| Juniata | 0.2 | R+62.6 | 95 | R+55.0 | D+7.6 |
| Montour | 0.1 | R+22.4 | 81 | R+31.2 | R+8.8 |
| Potter | 0.1 | R+62.0 | 95 | R+59.0 | D+3.0 |
| Fulton | 0.1 | R+73.1 | 95 | R+69.0 | D+4.1 |
| Sullivan | 0.1 | R+48.4 | 95 | R+40.0 | D+8.4 |
| Forest | 0.0 | R+44.8 | 99 | R+34.7 | D+10.0 |
| Cameron | 0.0 | R+47.9 | 99 | R+39.1 | D+8.7 |
Here’s what the balance of power looks like in the House right now. Republicans are closer to getting the majority of seats with 207 seats gained. But there are still 41 races left, and as we’ve said before, there have been three races so far where Republicans were favored and Democrats won. 
