How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Here at FiveThirtyEight HQ, we’re starting to take stock of what might still happen tonight and what we’ll likely be waiting on come morning.

Control of the Senate remains uncertain. Projections in several high-profile Senate races, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, seem like they could happen tonight, given the margins and the estimated vote remaining. We’re still waiting on significant returns in Nevada and Arizona, and Georgia seems likely to head for a runoff in December. As a result, there’s a slim chance that we’ll get a Senate call.

In the House, meanwhile, Republicans need just 10 more seats, according to ABC News’s projections, and they would take control of the chamber. Given the way the wind is blowing toward Republicans in some key districts, it seems possible we’ll get a call soon, but that’s up to our colleagues on ABC News’s Decision Desk.

We’ve sent the writers who are on our morning shift home so they can rest up before you read them all morning. We’ll be here for a few more hours, but that’s where we see things stand now.

And in Oregon’s governor race, which only has about two-thirds of the expected vote in, independent Betsy Johnson is at 9 percent — running pretty close to our final forecast, which projected her to win between 11 and 12 percent of the vote. Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan are within 1 percentage point, with Kotek at 45.6 percent and Drazan at 44.6 percent.

Checking back in on Indiana, the House race in the 1st District is still too close for ABC News to project. With 83 percent of expected votes reporting, around 12,000 votes separate incumbent Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan and Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green. Mrvan has 53 percent to Green’s 47 percent. Remember, this is a district that became slightly redder during redistricting but remained otherwise largely unchanged, keeping it competitive even as conservative PACs poured cash into Green’s campaign. As we’re seeing, it’s still a tight race!