How Election Week 2022 Went Down

This would be the first race we had rated as “Lean D” to fall to Republicans.

On Wisconsin! Or at least its vote tally, which is now up to 81 percent of the expected vote. In the Senate race, GOP incumbent Johnson looks like he’s probably good for a reelection victory, leading Barnes by a tad more than 3 points, 51.6 percent to 48.3 percent. On the governor’s side, though, Democratic incumbent Evers holds a narrow 1-point edge over Michels, 50.0 percent to 48.9 percent. The question now is the trend: There are around 530,000 outstanding votes to be tallied, according to ABC News, so a slight edge for one party could make all the difference for Evers or Michels in a race with a current margin of about 26,000 votes. The good news for Democrats is that 187,000 of the remaining votes are coming from deep-blue Milwaukee and Dane counties, so those will go overwhelmingly for Evers. But much of the rest of the state is red-leaning to solidly red, and it looks like a lot of Election Day vote (probably GOP-leaning) is what’s left, so will the larger share from the redder parts of the state outweigh the Democratic gains from its two main bases of support in the state? Tune in for our next update to find out.

In Connecticut’s 5th District, Republican George Logan leads Democrat Jahana Hayes, the incumbent, 51 percent to 49 percent, with 52 percent of the expected vote reporting.