FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Democrats have gotten some big wins in House races in North Carolina (the 13th District) and Ohio (1st and 13th) tonight. But those will likely be short-lived. In both of those states, the congressional map will be redrawn in the next couple years, likely to be better for Republicans. After North Carolina’s old congressional map was thrown out for being a partisan gerrymander, a court imposed this one for one cycle only. And Ohio’s map was found unconstitutional a few months ago, but there wasn’t time to draw a new map before the election. What’s more, because Republicans took or kept control of both the North Carolina and Ohio Supreme Courts, the new maps are less likely to be struck down by the new courts.

Monica Potts

As a reminder, Nevada will not start releasing results until every voter in line has voted. Polls closed at 7 p.m. Pacific Time, but the Las Vegas Sun reported that some voters had waited in line for as long as an hour and a half to vote this evening, which may be why we haven’t seen any results yet.

Meredith Conroy

I’m watching several toss-up races where women are in the running, and five of these races feature two women running against each other: Alaska’s 1st District, Virginia’s 2nd District, Oregon’s 5th District, Texas’s 15th District and Pennsylvania’s 2nd District. The Republican in Virginia’s 2nd, Jen Kiggans, is the projected winner there. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat leads narrowly, with 93 percent reporting. And in Alaska, there are no votes reported yet, as all polls there have not closed yet.

How are women faring in ‘Toss-Up’ races?

Results for female candidates in races where both parties had less than a 60 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 12:22 a.m. Eastern

race candidate party Percent reporting vote margin Winner?
AK-1 Mary S. Peltola i D 0%
AK-1 Sarah Palin R 0
IA-3 Cindy Axne i D 91 R+0.7
MI-3 Hillary Scholten D 49 D+13.2
NV Senate Catherine Cortez Masto i D 0
NV-1 Dina Titus i D 0
OR-5 Jamie McLeod-Skinner D 59 R+5.1
OR-5 Lori Chavez-DeRemer R 59 R+5.1
PA-7 Susan Wild i D 93 D+0.2
PA-7 Lisa Scheller R 93 D+0.2
TX-15 Michelle Vallejo D 84 R+9.7
TX-15 Monica De La Cruz R 84 R+9.7
TX-34 Mayra Flores i R 85 D+8.5
VA-2 Elaine G. Luria i D 99 R+4.3
VA-2 Jen A. Kiggans R 99 R+4.3

i Incumbent.

Source: ABC News


Exit mobile version