How Election Week 2022 Went Down

With 79 percent of the expected vote reporting in Colorado’s 3rd District, incumbent Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is still behind Democrat challenger Adam Frisch, but it is nail-bitingly close. Frisch has 52 percent while Boebert has 48 percent — fewer than 10,000 votes separate them. If Frisch wins, it will meet our definition for an upset, as Boebert had 97-in-100 odds of winning according to our final Deluxe forecast.

What’s shaking in Pennsylvania’s marquee Senate race? An extremely tight contest, that’s what. Fetterman leads Oz 49.4 percent to 48.1 percent with 84 percent of the expected vote reporting. But Fetterman has been running ahead of our benchmarks in much of the state, so he’s probably in a somewhat better position than Oz at this point. And the good news for Fetterman is that deep-blue Philadelphia has only reported about two-thirds of its expected vote, meaning he can likely expect to gain a bunch of votes there as more gets reported.

Republicans have held control of the Ohio Supreme Court, according to the AP. With the retirement of moderate Republican Justice Maureen O’Connor, expect the court to side with Republicans on issues like gerrymandering and abortion.