FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Looking at the big picture, it’s clear that Republicans will not have the 2022 midterm they wanted. In the Senate, Democrats lead in Pennsylvania, and Georgia looks like it will go to a runoff. And in the House, Democrats have scored some surprising victories in Ohio and North Carolina. Of course, there’s still a lot we don’t know in places like Nevada and Arizona, and Democrats would still have to run the table to hold onto the House. But it looks like the results will be on the low end of what was predicted for Republicans.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

BIG news out of Michigan. ABC News projects that Proposal 3, which would create a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, has passed. This means that abortion will remain legal in Michigan — and it’s also a big victory for abortion-rights supporters, who will undoubtedly see this as a sign that Americans are unhappy about the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and the subsequent wave of abortion bans in the south and midwest.

This result is a much bigger deal than the other abortion-related ballot measures because abortion’s legality was genuinely uncertain in Michigan, which is not the case in California or Vermont. And it’s significant to see a measure affirmatively protecting abortion rights pass in a swing state. Expect to see more ballot measures like this in 2024.

Monica Potts

Cortez Masto’s motion to keep polls open longer has been denied.

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