FiveThirtyEight
Fivey Fox

ABC News projects that Democrat Tim Walz will win the governor race in Minnesota.

Jacob Rubashkin

I’ll just plug our Inside Elections ratings here, as we had both Ohio’s 13th and North Carolina’s 13th as toss-up races.

Nate Silver

Yeah, at the risk of using a cliche, that 13th District call is a little bit of a game-changer. If Democrats can pick off some of the “likely Republican” seats, they have more pathways to hold the House. I wouldn’t bet on them doing so, but they have a chance.

The status of ‘Likely Republican’ House races

Results in districts where the Republican candidate had between a 75 percent and 95 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 12:03 a.m. Eastern

race democrat republican Percent reporting Vote Margin ABC Projection
AZ-6 Engel Ciscomani 51% D+13.4
CA-45 Chen Steel i 37 D+1.1
CO-8 Caraveo Kirkmeyer 60 D+2.3
FL-13 Lynn Paulina Luna 93 R+8.6 ✔ R
FL-27 Taddeo Salazar i 81 R+14.9 ✔ R
IA-1 Bohannan Miller-Meeks i 87 R+6.8
IA-2 Mathis Hinson i 75 R+14.2
MI-10 Marlinga James 12 R+14.7
MT-1 Tranel Zinke 28 D+15.1
NC-13 Nickel Hines 99 D+2.6 ✔ D
NE-2 Vargas Bacon i 73 R+1.1
NM-2 Vasquez Herrell i 87 D+5.4
NY-1 Fleming LaLota 0
OH-1 Landsman Chabot i 91 D+4.8 ✔ D
OH-13 Sykes Gilbert 92 D+5.1 ✔ D
WI-3 Pfaff Van Orden 81 R+6.1

i Incumbent.

Source: ABC News


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