FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

At the same time in Georgia, Kemp has pulled ahead of Abrams 53 percent to 47 percent in the overall vote count, and you can see that Kemp is beating his benchmarks in most counties across the state. This is consistent with our preelection expectations that Kemp would win — and run ahead of Walker.

Georgia governor results vs. benchmarks

How the parties are performing in each county or county equivalent compared with benchmarks based on the vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 9:05 p.m. Eastern

Vote margin is the difference between the Democrat’s vote share and the Republican’s vote share. Benchmark margins reflect the results that would produce a 50-50 tie, so performance relative to these benchmarks could signal which party is performing better on election night.

Source: ABC News

Meredith Conroy

Votes are reporting in Virginia’s 2nd District, where Democrat Elaine Luria is being challenged by Republican Jen Kiggans. This is one of several toss-up races that feature two women. Luria, a Navy veteran, was elected in 2018, a good year for Democrats, a good year for women and a good year for female veterans. This year, Republicans nominated Kiggans, who is a former Navy helicopter pilot, who could flip this seat back to red.

Nathaniel Rakich

With 52 percent of the expected vote reporting in Georgia, the Senate race has narrowed to Warnock 50 percent, Walker 48 percent. And the county-level benchmarks are sending mixed messages. Warnock is beating his benchmarks in some key counties, like Fulton and Gwinnett. But if you click “show more rows,” you can see that Walker is outperforming his benchmarks in several small, rural counties. Basically, this one still looks like it will be very close — possibly runoff territory.

Georgia Senate results vs. benchmarks

How the parties are performing in each county or county equivalent compared with benchmarks based on the vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 9:04 p.m. Eastern

Vote margin is the difference between the Democrat’s vote share and the Republican’s vote share. Benchmark margins reflect the results that would produce a 50-50 tie, so performance relative to these benchmarks could signal which party is performing better on election night.

Source: ABC News


Exit mobile version