Updated |
How Election Week 2022 Went Down
With 52 percent of the expected vote reporting in Georgia, the Senate race has narrowed to Warnock 50 percent, Walker 48 percent. And the county-level benchmarks are sending mixed messages. Warnock is beating his benchmarks in some key counties, like Fulton and Gwinnett. But if you click “show more rows,” you can see that Walker is outperforming his benchmarks in several small, rural counties. Basically, this one still looks like it will be very close — possibly runoff territory.
Georgia Senate results vs. benchmarks
How the parties are performing in each county or county equivalent compared with benchmarks based on the vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 9:04 p.m. Eastern
| Locality | Statewide vote share | Benchmark vote margin | Exp. vote | Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | 10.5% | D+46.1 | 66% | D+51.8 | D+5.7 |
| Gwinnett | 8.3 | D+18.0 | 42 | D+33.7 | D+15.7 |
| Cobb | 7.9 | D+14.1 | 58 | D+19.9 | D+5.8 |
| DeKalb | 7.4 | D+67.1 | 7 | D+76.5 | D+9.4 |
| Cherokee | 2.9 | R+39.5 | 76 | R+34.9 | D+4.6 |
| Chatham | 2.7 | D+18.5 | 49 | D+33.1 | D+14.6 |
| Forsyth | 2.6 | R+33.4 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Henry | 2.5 | D+20.2 | 73 | D+34.9 | D+14.7 |
| Clayton | 2.2 | D+70.6 | 71 | D+77.1 | D+6.4 |
| Hall | 1.8 | R+43.5 | 80 | R+43.1 | D+0.4 |
| Richmond | 1.7 | D+36.9 | 63 | D+48.0 | D+11.1 |
| Paulding | 1.7 | R+29.3 | 95 | R+23.9 | D+5.4 |
| Columbia | 1.6 | R+26.0 | 3 | R+41.2 | R+15.2 |
| Muscogee | 1.6 | D+23.8 | 59 | D+38.0 | D+14.3 |
| Coweta | 1.5 | R+35.8 | 55 | R+29.7 | D+6.0 |
| Houston | 1.5 | R+12.7 | 74 | R+7.9 | D+4.8 |
| Fayette | 1.4 | R+7.0 | 66 | D+3.3 | D+10.4 |
| Bibb | 1.4 | D+23.6 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Douglas | 1.4 | D+24.9 | 75 | D+33.5 | D+8.6 |
| Carroll | 1.1 | R+39.2 | 71 | R+33.6 | D+5.6 |
| Newton | 1.1 | D+10.7 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Clarke | 1.0 | D+41.8 | 57 | D+49.3 | D+7.5 |
| Walton | 1.0 | R+49.5 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Bartow | 1.0 | R+50.9 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Lowndes | 0.9 | R+12.3 | 93 | R+18.5 | R+6.2 |
| Rockdale | 0.9 | D+40.5 | 88 | D+48.0 | D+7.4 |
| Glynn | 0.8 | R+23.4 | 95 | R+26.9 | R+3.5 |
| Floyd | 0.8 | R+41.3 | 94 | R+39.7 | D+1.6 |
| Barrow | 0.8 | R+43.3 | 83 | R+37.7 | D+5.6 |
| Jackson | 0.8 | R+58.2 | 73 | R+53.9 | D+4.3 |
| Whitfield | 0.7 | R+40.9 | 83 | R+43.6 | R+2.7 |
| Dougherty | 0.7 | D+39.8 | 5 | D+56.0 | D+16.2 |
| Catoosa | 0.7 | R+56.1 | 65 | R+51.0 | D+5.1 |
| Effingham | 0.6 | R+49.8 | 75 | R+44.2 | D+5.6 |
| Spalding | 0.6 | R+21.0 | 12 | D+15.0 | D+36.0 |
| Bulloch | 0.6 | R+24.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Troup | 0.6 | R+22.1 | 69 | R+17.9 | D+4.2 |
| Walker | 0.6 | R+59.5 | 91 | R+57.8 | D+1.7 |
| Oconee | 0.5 | R+33.7 | 95 | R+34.5 | R+0.8 |
| Gordon | 0.5 | R+62.7 | 95 | R+62.2 | D+0.5 |
| Camden | 0.5 | R+31.0 | 78 | R+28.7 | D+2.3 |
| Laurens | 0.5 | R+28.5 | 76 | R+31.7 | R+3.3 |
| Thomas | 0.4 | R+19.7 | 95 | R+23.6 | R+3.8 |
| Liberty | 0.4 | D+23.8 | 95 | D+26.4 | D+2.6 |
| Bryan | 0.4 | R+35.4 | 74 | R+28.3 | D+7.1 |
| Habersham | 0.4 | R+64.2 | 95 | R+63.0 | D+1.2 |
| Harris | 0.4 | R+44.5 | 95 | R+47.2 | R+2.7 |
| Baldwin | 0.4 | D+1.1 | 92 | R+0.6 | R+1.7 |
| Polk | 0.3 | R+57.3 | 34 | R+52.9 | D+4.4 |
| Pickens | 0.3 | R+66.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Lee | 0.3 | R+44.8 | 95 | R+42.6 | D+2.2 |
| Gilmer | 0.3 | R+63.8 | 88 | R+61.9 | D+1.8 |
| Tift | 0.3 | R+33.8 | 91 | R+38.9 | R+5.1 |
| Colquitt | 0.3 | R+47.4 | 61 | R+48.5 | R+1.1 |
| Dawson | 0.3 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.4 | D+3.7 |
| Monroe | 0.3 | R+43.0 | 95 | R+43.4 | R+0.4 |
| Lumpkin | 0.3 | R+58.4 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Union | 0.3 | R+63.5 | 95 | R+60.4 | D+3.1 |
| Murray | 0.3 | R+69.4 | 72 | R+71.0 | R+1.6 |
| Coffee | 0.3 | R+40.1 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Jones | 0.3 | R+34.1 | 64 | R+35.2 | R+1.1 |
| Madison | 0.3 | R+53.2 | 59 | R+54.7 | R+1.5 |
| Fannin | 0.3 | R+64.9 | 58 | R+51.4 | D+13.5 |
| White | 0.3 | R+66.4 | 76 | R+61.5 | D+4.9 |
| Haralson | 0.3 | R+74.2 | 86 | R+71.4 | D+2.8 |
| Ware | 0.3 | R+40.7 | 68 | R+36.3 | D+4.3 |
| Upson | 0.3 | R+34.4 | 92 | R+34.9 | R+0.6 |
| Wayne | 0.3 | R+57.3 | 95 | R+58.3 | R+1.0 |
| Hart | 0.3 | R+49.8 | 85 | R+52.9 | R+3.1 |
| Peach | 0.3 | R+4.9 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Sumter | 0.2 | D+4.6 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Stephens | 0.2 | R+59.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Putnam | 0.2 | R+41.1 | 86 | R+36.5 | D+4.6 |
| Butts | 0.2 | R+43.8 | 75 | R+43.5 | D+0.3 |
| Morgan | 0.2 | R+41.9 | 60 | R+41.1 | D+0.8 |
| Decatur | 0.2 | R+17.2 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Greene | 0.2 | R+26.7 | 95 | R+30.9 | R+4.2 |
| Meriwether | 0.2 | R+20.8 | 53 | R+18.3 | D+2.5 |
| Toombs | 0.2 | R+45.5 | 92 | R+50.1 | R+4.7 |
| Franklin | 0.2 | R+69.7 | 48 | R+73.3 | R+3.6 |
| Burke | 0.2 | R+2.0 | 93 | R+6.9 | R+4.9 |
| Grady | 0.2 | R+32.1 | 86 | R+35.9 | R+3.8 |
| Pike | 0.2 | R+71.3 | 88 | R+69.6 | D+1.8 |
| McDuffie | 0.2 | R+19.4 | 91 | R+23.7 | R+4.3 |
| Chattooga | 0.2 | R+62.0 | 76 | R+54.4 | D+7.6 |
| Rabun | 0.2 | R+57.6 | 95 | R+53.3 | D+4.3 |
| Emanuel | 0.2 | R+38.8 | 87 | R+41.6 | R+2.8 |
| Washington | 0.2 | D+0.6 | 58 | D+1.0 | D+0.5 |
| Worth | 0.2 | R+48.0 | 42 | R+31.0 | D+17.0 |
| Elbert | 0.2 | R+36.7 | 59 | R+41.6 | R+4.9 |
| Lamar | 0.2 | R+41.3 | 87 | R+39.2 | D+2.0 |
| Pierce | 0.2 | R+75.4 | 95 | R+77.4 | R+2.0 |
| Mitchell | 0.2 | R+10.8 | 65 | R+6.9 | D+3.9 |
| Banks | 0.2 | R+78.2 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Appling | 0.2 | R+57.3 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Tattnall | 0.2 | R+49.0 | 59 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Oglethorpe | 0.2 | R+39.0 | 18 | R+29.7 | D+9.3 |
| Crisp | 0.2 | R+25.2 | 83 | R+28.0 | R+2.8 |
| Dodge | 0.2 | R+45.7 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Towns | 0.2 | R+60.8 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+1.6 |
| Berrien | 0.2 | R+66.7 | 92 | R+68.4 | R+1.6 |
| Brantley | 0.2 | R+81.5 | 95 | R+82.1 | R+0.6 |
| Jasper | 0.2 | R+53.3 | 84 | R+46.6 | D+6.7 |
| Jefferson | 0.2 | D+6.6 | 67 | D+10.2 | D+3.6 |
| Dade | 0.1 | R+64.8 | 84 | R+61.0 | D+3.8 |
| Brooks | 0.1 | R+20.9 | 93 | R+27.7 | R+6.8 |
| Cook | 0.1 | R+40.6 | 22 | R+31.6 | D+9.0 |
| McIntosh | 0.1 | R+21.2 | 58 | R+23.2 | R+2.0 |
| Screven | 0.1 | R+19.2 | 86 | R+25.7 | R+6.5 |
| Ben Hill | 0.1 | R+26.4 | 88 | R+28.9 | R+2.5 |
| Crawford | 0.1 | R+46.3 | 5 | D+13.1 | D+59.5 |
| Jeff Davis | 0.1 | R+63.7 | 90 | R+66.2 | R+2.5 |
| Bleckley | 0.1 | R+53.1 | 95 | R+55.0 | R+1.9 |
| Long | 0.1 | R+26.6 | 59 | R+17.0 | D+9.6 |
| Heard | 0.1 | R+68.7 | 83 | R+65.1 | D+3.6 |
| Early | 0.1 | R+5.3 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Wilkes | 0.1 | R+13.4 | 91 | R+17.5 | R+4.1 |
| Wilkinson | 0.1 | R+12.6 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Bacon | 0.1 | R+72.9 | 93 | R+74.0 | R+1.1 |
| Lincoln | 0.1 | R+37.8 | 95 | R+44.5 | R+6.8 |
| Macon | 0.1 | D+22.8 | 60 | D+10.4 | R+12.4 |
| Charlton | 0.1 | R+50.9 | 52 | R+41.6 | D+9.3 |
| Candler | 0.1 | R+42.3 | 95 | R+45.1 | R+2.8 |
| Twiggs | 0.1 | R+7.6 | 89 | R+8.2 | R+0.7 |
| Terrell | 0.1 | D+8.2 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Telfair | 0.1 | R+31.1 | 52 | R+37.0 | R+5.9 |
| Evans | 0.1 | R+37.1 | 93 | R+40.4 | R+3.4 |
| Hancock | 0.1 | D+43.6 | 71 | D+44.4 | D+0.7 |
| Irwin | 0.1 | R+51.2 | 50 | R+53.7 | R+2.4 |
| Dooly | 0.1 | R+6.3 | 83 | R+9.9 | R+3.6 |
| Johnson | 0.1 | R+39.9 | 93 | R+47.9 | R+8.0 |
| Pulaski | 0.1 | R+39.1 | 83 | R+42.4 | R+3.4 |
| Montgomery | 0.1 | R+50.1 | 88 | R+52.9 | R+2.8 |
| Seminole | 0.1 | R+35.1 | 90 | R+43.8 | R+8.7 |
| Taylor | 0.1 | R+27.1 | 86 | R+32.9 | R+5.8 |
| Turner | 0.1 | R+25.0 | 89 | R+24.5 | D+0.5 |
| Marion | 0.1 | R+26.8 | 93 | R+25.8 | D+1.0 |
| Lanier | 0.1 | R+41.9 | 94 | R+43.3 | R+1.4 |
| Talbot | 0.1 | D+20.3 | 46 | D+30.6 | D+10.4 |
| Jenkins | 0.1 | R+26.1 | 92 | R+33.0 | R+6.9 |
| Wilcox | 0.1 | R+47.2 | 89 | R+49.9 | R+2.6 |
| Atkinson | 0.1 | R+47.0 | 57 | R+54.0 | R+7.0 |
| Treutlen | 0.1 | R+37.6 | 90 | R+41.4 | R+3.8 |
| Randolph | 0.1 | D+8.9 | 88 | D+8.2 | R+0.7 |
| Clinch | 0.1 | R+47.8 | 90 | R+56.6 | R+8.8 |
| Miller | 0.1 | R+46.7 | 89 | R+51.6 | R+4.8 |
| Warren | 0.1 | D+11.2 | 91 | D+5.1 | R+6.1 |
| Schley | 0.0 | R+59.1 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Wheeler | 0.0 | R+39.4 | 90 | R+40.3 | R+0.9 |
| Calhoun | 0.0 | D+15.2 | 38 | D+3.4 | R+11.9 |
| Stewart | 0.0 | D+18.9 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Chattahoochee | 0.0 | R+13.7 | 88 | R+8.4 | D+5.3 |
| Baker | 0.0 | R+16.0 | 92 | R+15.1 | D+0.9 |
| Glascock | 0.0 | R+79.9 | 96 | R+81.7 | R+1.8 |
| Clay | 0.0 | D+10.5 | 91 | D+4.0 | R+6.5 |
| Echols | 0.0 | R+75.8 | 89 | R+79.0 | R+3.2 |
| Webster | 0.0 | R+8.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Quitman | 0.0 | R+9.9 | 92 | R+14.7 | R+4.8 |
| Taliaferro | 0.0 | D+21.4 | 72 | D+13.4 | R+8.0 |
Really striking number in the preliminary exit poll results in Michigan (which are incomplete and can, of course, change) — almost half of voters in the state said that abortion was the most important issue driving their vote, way above the national number for this question. That’s especially worth underscoring because Michigan voters are deciding whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution today.
The polls are closed in Mississippi, and I’m watching the state’s 4th District, where Republican Mike Ezell is expected to win. He’s the former Jackson County sheriff who ousted incumbent Rep. Steven Palazzo in the primary. Republicans are expected to win three of the four House races in the state.