FiveThirtyEight
Monica Potts

The polls are closed in Mississippi, and I’m watching the state’s 4th District, where Republican Mike Ezell is expected to win. He’s the former Jackson County sheriff who ousted incumbent Rep. Steven Palazzo in the primary. Republicans are expected to win three of the four House races in the state.

Monica Potts

Also in Arkansas, ABC News projects that Republican incumbent Rep. French Hill will also hold onto his seat in the 2nd District.

Paroma Soni

Many competitive House seats are in suburban districts. We’re updating results in districts that are at least 50 percent suburban, according to FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index:

How suburban House districts are voting

Results in districts that are at least 50 percent suburban, according to FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index, as of 8:57 p.m. Eastern

district suburban leader margin exp. vote
TN-9 83.9% Steve Cohen 0%
NJ-4 78.9 Christopher H. Smith R+2.2 12
NC-2 78.8 Deborah K. Ross D+41.6 56
TX-16 78.8 Veronica Escobar 0
CA-8 78.8 John Garamendi 0
CA-10 78.7 Mark DeSaulnier 0
CA-27 77.0 Christy Smith 0
MO-5 76.5 Emanuel Cleaver, II D+22.6 4
GA-7 76.5 Lucy McBath D+27.6 46
MD-3 76.4 John Sarbanes 0
IN-7 76.2 André D. Carson D+30.3 40
KY-3 74.8 Morgan McGarvey D+34.2 52
IL-10 74.7 Brad Schneider D+20.3 52
MN-3 74.1 Dean Phillips 0
GA-6 73.9 Rich McCormick R+11.8 34
FL-13 73.5 Anna Paulina Luna R+8.6 93
VA-3 71.9 Robert C. “Bobby” Scott D+30.7 87
MI-6 69.9 Debbie Dingell D+34.0 14
CA-39 69.6 Mark Takano 0
TX-2 69.3 Robin Fulford 0
GA-11 67.5 Barry Loudermilk R+10.8 41
CA-49 67.0 Mike Levin 0
MI-11 66.8 Haley Stevens D+26.0 38
FL-16 66.0 Vern Buchanan R+24.9 89
GA-13 65.8 David Scott D+66.6 64
CA-50 65.0 Scott Peters 0
VA-10 64.3 Jennifer T. Wexton D+6.0 99
WA-10 64.3 Marilyn Strickland 0
FL-5 64.0 John Rutherford 0
NC-12 62.8 Alma S. Adams D+31.7 54
OH-13 62.4 Emilia Sykes D+30.6 30
CA-26 61.5 Julia Brownley 0
UT-3 61.0 Glenn J. Wright 0
FL-7 60.8 Cory Mills R+15.9 83
NE-2 60.7 Tony Vargas 0
FL-14 60.7 Kathy Castor D+13.1 81
IL-14 60.0 Lauren Underwood D+33.4 15
OK-1 60.0 Kevin Hern R+5.6 17
KS-3 59.5 Sharice Davids D+24.2 45
OH-8 59.2 Warren Davidson R+15.8 24
CT-4 58.9 Jim Himes D+20.3 1
AZ-5 58.8 Javier Ramos 0
MO-2 58.6 Ann Wagner R+16.7 1
PA-1 58.1 Ashley Ehasz 0
NJ-12 58.1 Bonnie Watson Coleman D+85.0 0
MN-2 57.3 Angie Craig 0
NY-17 57.2 Sean Patrick Maloney 0
OK-5 56.8 Stephanie Bice R+12.1 28
OH-10 56.6 Mike Turner R+1.3 28
NC-14 56.5 Jeff Jackson D+20.4 59
NM-1 56.3 Melanie Ann Stansbury 0
NJ-3 56.2 Andy Kim 0
NE-1 55.8 Patty Pansing Brooks 0
CA-48 55.7 Stephen Houlahan 0
TX-26 55.3 Michael C. Burgess R+37.0 73
FL-4 55.1 Aaron Bean R+21.5 83
MA-8 55.1 Stephen F. Lynch 0
UT-1 54.9 Rick Edwin Jones 0
WA-9 54.5 Adam Smith 0
TX-33 54.3 Marc Veasey D+50.1 50
VA-11 54.2 Gerald E. “Gerry” Connolly D+38.8 28
CT-5 53.8 George Logan R+8.0 2
IL-11 53.8 Bill Foster D+24.1 23
PA-7 53.6 Susan Wild D+58.6 8
IL-8 53.6 Raja Krishnamoorthi D+22.8 12
NY-20 53.6 Paul D. Tonko 0
FL-9 53.5 Darren Soto D+6.1 69
NY-3 53.2 Robert P. Zimmerman 0
CT-1 53.2 John B. Larson D+44.4 1
CO-5 52.7 David Torres 0
CT-3 52.5 Rosa L. DeLauro 0
FL-15 52.4 Laurel Lee R+17.6 82
MA-3 52.4 Lori Loureiro Trahan 0
TX-15 51.9 Monica De La Cruz R+48.2 14
IL-17 51.9 Eric Sorensen 0
FL-22 51.6 Lois Frankel D+10.0 85
FL-19 51.5 Byron Donalds R+28.6 53
PA-10 51.3 Shamaine Daniels D+51.1 21
TX-30 51.2 Jasmine Crockett D+56.5 57
NC-6 50.8 Kathy Manning D+14.6 62
CO-2 50.7 Joe Neguse 0
OH-15 50.4 Mike Carey R+3.1 33
HI-1 50.3 Ed Case 0

FiveThirtyEight categorizes a census tract as “suburban” if between 100,000 and 250,000 people live within a five-mile radius. We then calculate what proportion of each district’s population lives in a suburban area to determine how suburban the district is.

Source: ABC News, U.S. Census Bureau


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