How Election Week 2022 Went Down

We’re up to 10 percent reporting in New Hampshire, and Hassan leads Bolduc 61 percent to 38 percent. Hassan is outperforming Biden’s margins in municipalities like Concord and Manchester by a few percentage points, so she’s doing what she needs to do thus far. (Biden won New Hampshire comfortably, by 7 points.)

Though the New York Times Needle is live, please promise us that you’ll come back to FiveThirtyEight after you check it. It shows the Senate as a tossup — although if I’m squinting at it correctly, Democrats are ever-so-slight favorites — while Republicans have a 76 percent chance of winning the House.

Adding onto Nathaniel’s answer, the Needle is a model that considers the votes that have already been counted, which precincts/counties those counted votes came from and estimates or predictions for the remaining votes. It’s not going to tell us the future, but it’s a clear way of visualizing what we (and namely, the New York Times) very well might see.