How Election Week 2022 Went Down

The New York Times’s infamous “Needle” is live. It is a live forecast of what’s to come for the rest of election night, and as of this writing, it is saying the Senate is a toss-up and the House “probably” going into Republican control. Does anyone have any tips for readers about how best to understand what the Needle can and can’t tell us?

Kaleigh, you just mentioned a number of election deniers who are projected to win in Florida and Alabama, and they all happened to be women. As we’ve written for the site, women elected officials in the GOP historically tended to be more moderate than their male counterparts. But the current political environment has led moderate women to opt out of politics, so the Republican women that run (or get through their primaries) are as extreme as the men in their party.

Democratic chances in the Senate are now up to 38 percent in prediction markets, which is actually higher than it was 24 hours ago. Traders see good news for Democrats so far in Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania based on very early returns, though Democratic chances have declined in Nevada on reports of low Election Day turnout for Democrats.