FiveThirtyEight
Meredith Conroy

Kaleigh, you just mentioned a number of election deniers who are projected to win in Florida and Alabama, and they all happened to be women. As we’ve written for the site, women elected officials in the GOP historically tended to be more moderate than their male counterparts. But the current political environment has led moderate women to opt out of politics, so the Republican women that run (or get through their primaries) are as extreme as the men in their party.

Nate Silver

Democratic chances in the Senate are now up to 38 percent in prediction markets, which is actually higher than it was 24 hours ago. Traders see good news for Democrats so far in Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania based on very early returns, though Democratic chances have declined in Nevada on reports of low Election Day turnout for Democrats.

Dan Hopkins

Philadelphia was another Pennsylvania county that dropped much of its mail vote right at 8 p.m. — and, as expected, it leaned heavily toward Fetterman, with Oz picking up 6 percent to Fetterman’s 92 percent. Philadelphia leans Democrat but not quite by that much.


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