FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Right now, there is a lot more support for the abortion-rights position in Kentucky’s ballot amendment (56 percent) than for the Democratic Senate candidate (42 percent). Which, if that continues to be the case, could pose a conundrum for Democrats. It’s a sign, on the one hand, that voters are rejecting stances on abortion that are outside the mainstream — and which many Republicans are embracing. But … they’re not necessarily voting for Democrats as a result.

Alex Samuels

Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s Senate race, Democrat Cheri Beasley currently leads Republican Ted Budd 58 percent to 41 percent (with about 36 percent of the expected vote in). Of course, it’s still early, so we won’t get too ahead of ourselves here. Plus, for Democrats, North Carolina has recently been more of a white whale than a bird in hand: In fact, no Democrat has won a statewide federal race there since 2008.

Nathaniel Rakich

Time to dive into some county results! In Fulton County, Georgia (home of Atlanta, mostly), 63 percent of the expected vote is reporting, and Warnock leads Walker 75 percent to 25 percent. In the 2021 runoff that Warnock won, he carried Fulton 73 percent to 27 percent, so that’s a positive sign for him.


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