How Election Week 2022 Went Down

We are getting results in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is trying to fend off Republican Yesli Vega. Vega leads 61 percent to 39 percent, with 38 percent of the expected vote reporting.

But we also have most of the votes in from Culpeper County in central Virginia at the rural-exurban edge of metro Washington, D.C., and based on our benchmarks for where candidates want to be relative to a 50-50 race in the district, the news is actually decent for Spanberger. With 94 percent reporting from Culpeper, Vega leads by about 16 points there, 58 percent to 42 percent. But our benchmarks suggest Vega would want to be up more like 26 points to be running 50-50. We’ll see if this pattern holds as we get more votes from other places in the district.

North Carolina’s 13th District is also one of the likeliest tipping-point districts according to our forecast. Which is to say, it’s one of the most liable districts to put one party or the other over the edge of a majority in the House. A good district to keep a good eye on!

With 38 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Wiley Nickel is leading Republican Bo Hines 65 percent to 35 percent in the race for North Carolina’s 13th District, according to ABC News. To be clear, these results may change as more Election Day votes are counted (our forecast gave Hines a significant edge here). But the race here is notable because Hines, a 26-year-old former college football player, is one of many GOP candidates who has questioned (without evidence) the results of the 2020 election. One thing that could be playing to Nickel’s advantage is the fact that Hines has faced criticism for his weak ties to the district and for shopping around for a place to launch a long-awaited political career.