FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

With 38 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Wiley Nickel is leading Republican Bo Hines 65 percent to 35 percent in the race for North Carolina’s 13th District, according to ABC News. To be clear, these results may change as more Election Day votes are counted (our forecast gave Hines a significant edge here). But the race here is notable because Hines, a 26-year-old former college football player, is one of many GOP candidates who has questioned (without evidence) the results of the 2020 election. One thing that could be playing to Nickel’s advantage is the fact that Hines has faced criticism for his weak ties to the district and for shopping around for a place to launch a long-awaited political career.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

With 10 percent of the expected vote reporting, the “no” vote on Kentucky’s ballot amendment — which would clarify that there is no right to abortion in the state constitution — is at 58 percent, and the “yes” vote is at 42 percent. It’s a bit of a brain-twister, but that means the abortion-rights side is ahead for now. Of course, it’s early and things could change, but this is not an especially promising start for anti-abortion advocates in Kentucky.

Nathaniel Rakich

One-third of the expected vote is already reporting in North Carolina’s Senate race, and Beasley leads Budd 59 percent to 39 percent. But North Carolina is a state that reports a ton of early/absentee votes right after polls close — and of course, these voters skew Democratic. Look for Budd to close that gap significantly as the night progresses.


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