How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Prediction markets have generally been more bullish on GOP chances than FiveThirtyEight and other forecast models, and their trajectory today has been interesting. They were shifting strongly to the GOP over the course of the afternoon on reports of low Democratic turnout, but Republicans have given some of their gains back in the past hour or so once actual votes have started to trickle in.

Polls in Texas’s Harris County will be open an extra hour — so until 9 p.m. Eastern tonight, compared with the state’s usual 8 p.m. poll closing time. The move comes after the county was sued by the Texas Organizing Project, which cited delays in opening a number of polling locations, according to local reports.

Meanwhile, in Georgia’s governor race, Abrams leads Kemp 64 percent to 36 percent. Notably, that means the margin in the Senate race is 9 points better for Democrats than the margin in the governor’s race. As Geoffrey wrote in September, that’s an unusually wide divergence.