How Election Week 2022 Went Down

And from the looks of it, Nate, things are not going well for Democrats in Florida tonight. As folks may remember, in 2018, Florida’s results came in early in the night, and they were good for Republicans. That served as something of fake-out in a night that went well for Democrats. So is Florida an early indicator or a unique data point this time around? We are about to find out!

Kaleigh just mentioned Indiana Democrat Frank Mrvan. In this Congress, Mrvan’s voting record has been more conservative than 74 percent of Democrats — but when a party’s tide goes out, it tends to strand the party’s more moderate members first. An irony of wave elections is that they often decimate a party’s more moderate ranks, leaving the party further to the left or right.

We already have nearly 2 million votes counted in Florida — that state counts fast! — and Rubio and Demings are effectively tied, with Rubio taking a slight lead. That’s good news for the Republican, as those are all early votes and mail-in ballots, which tend to skew toward Democrats.