Last night, we got some updated votes totals in two key California House races that have yet to be projected. In the Central Valley-based 13th District, Republican Adam Duarte now leads Democrat Adam Gray by less than a percentage point, 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent, with 69 percent of the expected vote reporting. ABC News estimates that around 11,000 votes are left to count, which makes Duarte a favorite because Gray needs to win nearly 55 percent of those remaining votes to overtake the Republican. About half that vote is in Democratic-leaning Stanislaus County, so perhaps that’s a lifeline for Gray’s chances, but you’d rather be Duarte at this point.
Democrats got better news in the Orange County-based 47th District, where Democratic Rep. Katie Porter now leads Republican Scott Baugh by almost 3 points, 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent. We don’t have a specific estimate of the outstanding votes from Orange County that still need to be counted, but based on what we have and the fact that 88 percent of the expected vote has reported, there could be 30,000 to 40,000 left to count. If so, Baugh may need to win somewhere around 60 percent of those votes to catch Porter, which may be asking too much.