Where the uncalled races stand
Earlier tonight, ABC News projected that Republicans have reached 218 seats in the House, guaranteeing them a majority at the start of the 118th Congress in January. Now the question is, how large a majority will the GOP have? As things stand, Republicans have 218 seats and Democrats have 210, according to ABC News estimates.
As the table below shows, of the remaining seven races where the winning party has yet to be determined, five are in California. That means some of them may take many more days of tabulating votes to have full results.
Several House races are still up in the air
Districts where ABC News has not yet reported a projected winner, as of 8:50 p.m. Eastern
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Percent reporting | Vote margin | Vote share margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-1 | Peltola i | Palin | 81% | 53,297 | D+22.1 |
| CA-3 | Jones | Kiley | 59 | 8,918 | R+4.6 |
| CA-13 | Gray | Duarte | 65 | 600 | D+0.5 |
| CA-22 | Salas | Valadao i | 50 | 3,965 | R+5.6 |
| CA-47 | Porter i | Baugh | 87 | 6,920 | D+2.7 |
| CA-49 | Levin i | Maryott | 93 | 14,631 | D+5.1 |
| CO-3 | Frisch | Boebert i | 99 | 1,122 | R+0.3 |
Let’s take a quick look at those races, which seem likely to give Republicans somewhere between 220 and 222 seats:
- The GOP may eventually add Colorado’s 3rd District to its ledger, which would get Republicans to 219 seats. There, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert has enough of a lead that Democrat Adam Frisch will probably need to win around two-thirds of the outstanding vote to overtake her. That’s not out of the question, but while this race could be headed for a recount, the candidate in the lead tends to win unless the race is super close.
- Meanwhile, Democrats have an edge in Alaska’s At-Large District, which will likely be decided by ranked-choice voting and would give Democrats at 211 seats. Currently, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola has 48 percent of first-choice votes, so this time around she’ll likely end up with more than the 40 percent she initially won in the August special election here, which proved sufficient to win a majority after second-choice votes were tabulated.
- Republicans are favorites in California’s 3rd District, where Republican Kevin Kiley leads. This seat is an R+7 seat, so it would take quite a Democratic overperformance for Kiley to end up losing, so this probably gets the GOP to 220 seats.
- On the flip side, Democrats are probably favored in California’s 47th and 49th districts, which would get them to 213 seats. In the 47th, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter has a nearly 3-point edge over Republican Scott Baugh, who’ll need to win around 60 percent of the remaining votes to catch Porter. Similarly, in the 49th District, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has a 5-point advantage over Republican Brian Maryott, who’ll need to win an unrealistic share of the remaining vote to catch.
- That leaves two California seats where things are more in doubt. Democrat Adam Gray has a small lead in the 13th District, but only about two-thirds of the expected vote has been reported. In the 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao leads, but not quite half the expected vote is in and it could take weeks to count the rest.