FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Nathaniel, if I were giving odds, I’d make California’s 27th District the favorite to be the next race projected and put Republicans at 218 seats. That’s because Republican Rep. Mike Garcia leads by around 8 points over Democrat Christy Smith with 75 percent of the expected vote reporting. So if the next batch of votes reported by California isn’t fairly good for Smith, I suspect we’ll get a projection there because the mountain for Smith to climb will simply be too high for her to realistically overcome.


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