Although Democrats got good news in Arizona’s governor’s race yesterday, most of the recent projections in U.S. House races have been better for the GOP. As things stand, Republicans have won 215 seats compared with 207 for Democrats, according to ABC News estimates, putting Republicans just three seats short of a majority-clinching 218.
As the table below shows, of the remaining 13 races where the winning party has yet to be determined, 10 are in California, which will take many more days of tabulating votes to get anywhere near having full results in some of these contests.
Several House races are still up in the air
Districts where ABC News has not yet reported a projected winner, as of 10:54 a.m. Eastern
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Percent reporting | Vote margin | Vote share margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-1 | Peltola i | Palin | 72% | 44,406 | D+20.7 |
| CA-3 | Jones | Kiley | 52 | 9,763 | R+5.7 |
| CA-9 | Harder i | Patti | 36 | 9,918 | D+12.5 |
| CA-13 | Gray | Duarte | 58 | 761 | D+0.7 |
| CA-21 | Costa i | Maher | 50 | 7,092 | D+8.5 |
| CA-22 | Salas | Valadao i | 40 | 3,063 | R+5.3 |
| CA-27 | Smith | Garcia i | 58 | 13,167 | R+8.8 |
| CA-41 | Rollins | Calvert i | 77 | 5,489 | R+3.1 |
| CA-45 | Chen | Steel i | 67 | 13,637 | R+7.6 |
| CA-47 | Porter i | Baugh | 78 | 2,891 | D+1.3 |
| CA-49 | Levin i | Maryott | 84 | 12,796 | D+5.0 |
| CO-3 | Frisch | Boebert i | 99 | 1,122 | R+0.3 |
| ME-2 | Golden i | Poliquin | 88 | 14,955 | D+5.3 |
Let’s take a quick look at this baker’s dozen worth of seats:
- The GOP looks more likely than not to eventually add Colorado’s 3rd District to its ledger, which would get Republicans to 216 seats. There, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert has enough of a lead that Democrat Adam Frisch will probably need to win around two-thirds of the outstanding vote to overtake her.
- Meanwhile, Democrats probably have an edge in the two seats that will be decided by ranked-choice voting, which could put them at 209 seats overall. In Alaska’s At-Large District, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola has 47 percent of first-choice votes, so this time around she’ll likely end up with more than the 40 percent she initially won in the August special election here, which proved sufficient to win a majority after second-choice votes were tabulated. In Maine’s 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden isn’t far away from 50 percent either in his race against Republican Bruce Poliquin, and history suggests he’ll receive enough support from third-place candidate Tiffany Bond’s voters to get over that threshold: Bond also finished in third in 2018 when Golden first won here, and her voters helped Golden defeat then-Rep. Poliquin that year.
- In California, Republicans are probably favorites in four seats: the 3rd, 27th, 41st and 45th districts. The GOP candidates lead in the 3rd and 41st districts, which also have Republican-leaning partisan makeups, while the Republican incumbents in the light-blue 27th and 45th districts have leads in the high single digits. Unless reporting trends change, these seats are positioned to get Republicans to a majority with 220 seats overall.
- On the flip side, Democrats are probably favored in three seats that would get them to 212 seats: the 9th, 21st and 49th districts. We don’t yet have a ton of votes from the 9th and 21st districts, but they are probably blue enough that Democrats are more likely than not to win them. And in the 49th District, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin leads by about 5 points, so Republican Brian Maryott has to win about two-thirds of the remaining votes to catch Levin.
- That leaves three California seats where things are more in doubt. As we mentioned earlier, Democrat Adam Gray has taken a small lead in the 13th District, but we’re a long way from knowing the outcome there. In the 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao leads, but it could take weeks to see how the remaining votes break. Lastly, in the 49th District, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter only has a small edge, and Republican Scott Baugh could catch her if he wins around 55 percent of the remaining votes.