FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

Ryan mentioned earlier how high turnout will be in the Virginia governor’s race — likely more than 3 million votes when this is all said and done, which surpasses turnout in recent gubernatorial elections — and how a high turnout election hasn’t really worked in Democrats’ favor.

I wanted to build on that latter point by putting some numbers on it from on our third wave of exit polls. Voters in this election report having split evenly between Biden and Trump in 2020, 46-46 percent. That says a lot about who turned out to vote tonight, with many Biden supporters sitting this contest out, as the president won the state by a 10-point margin.


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