Using our benchmark vote margins in each Virginia locality, Youngkin is off to a good start, as most places are voting more Republican than the figures we set out at the start of the night. However, it’s very important to note that many places have not reported absentee ballots, which we know will lean fairly Democratic and could shift these results much closer to the benchmark margins, one way or the other.
The big story at this point would probably be Loudoun County, where McAuliffe only leads by about 6 points, which is about 10 points more Republican than our benchmark there. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried the northern Virginia county by 25 points, when it made up about 5 percent of the state’s vote. But now with 82 percent of the expected vote in from Loudoun — with around 17,000 early votes left to be tallied, according to the Virginia Public Access Project — there’s a possibility things narrow there further for McAuliffe.
Early returns are favorable for Youngkin — with caveats
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04% | D+15.2 | 82% | D+5.6 | R+9.6 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 69 | D+9.2 | R+10.0 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 84 | R+61.4 | R+9.9 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 66 | R+44.2 | R+16.2 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 65 | R+68.6 | R+10.5 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 95 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 62 | R+59.2 | D+4.3 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 95 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 95 | R+30.8 | D+2.8 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 82 | R+45.7 | R+13.7 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 89 | R+73.0 | D+5.2 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 73 | R+63.2 | R+10.7 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 67 | R+75.8 | R+3.2 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 70 | R+75.9 | R+2.3 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 85 | R+21.9 | D+4.9 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 95 | R+42.9 | R+10.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 67 | R+71.9 | R+4.6 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 78 | D+73.5 | D+6.5 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 62 | R+36.8 | R+2.0 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 64 | R+80.4 | R+1.6 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 63 | R+29.5 | R+14.0 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 88 | R+80.5 | R+0.5 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 78 | R+72.4 | R+3.5 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 87 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+52.5 | R+4.1 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 93 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 86 | R+64.4 | D+4.5 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 73 | R+29.9 | R+15.0 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 87 | R+39.8 | R+4.0 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 64 | R+26.9 | R+15.9 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 65 | D+6.8 | R+9.9 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 95 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 95 | R+32.1 | R+6.7 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 95 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 61 | R+18.6 | D+6.3 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 95 | D+0.5 | D+2.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 88 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 51 | R+2.7 | R+25.2 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 95 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 66 | R+51.2 | D+0.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 95 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 63 | R+21.4 | R+14.4 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 68 | R+65.0 | R+7.7 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 95 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 61 | R+64.6 | R+11.5 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 99 | R+39.6 | R+10.7 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 67 | D+4.9 | R+10.6 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 66 | D+0.7 | R+4.7 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 64 | R+57.8 | R+11.3 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.9 | R+4.8 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 51 | D+12.0 | R+11.4 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 58 | R+29.4 | R+29.8 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 54 | R+55.3 | R+12.9 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 92 | R+50.8 | D+4.7 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 57 | R+32.9 | R+14.3 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 72 | R+42.2 | R+18.0 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 89 | R+69.1 | D+5.4 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 72 | R+26.4 | R+11.9 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 95 | D+7.0 | R+5.0 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 75 | R+33.2 | R+7.6 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 72 | R+67.4 | R+4.8 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 71 | R+26.9 | D+7.6 |