What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

To help understand the Virginia governor’s race as the votes are tallied, we created benchmark vote margins for each county and city using their 2020 presidential vote share. The way the benchmarks work is simple: If a place is voting more Republican than its 2020 benchmark, that’s a good sign for Youngkin; if it’s going more Democratic, that’s a positive development for McAuliffe.

Here are the benchmarks, based on the two-party vote in the 2020 presidential election (so just the Democratic and Republican votes) and ordered by each locality’s share of the statewide vote:

A few things to keep in mind. First, the numbers are based on the two-party vote, so it excludes third-party and write-in votes, which will probably constitute, at most, around 2 percent of the total vote. We did this because the Democratic and Republican votes are all that matter in a race without a significant third-party presence. (Not to say the lone third-party candidate couldn’t have an impact, as progressive candidate Princess Blanding could win a few left-leaning votes).

Second, these benchmarks are calculated based on Biden’s 10-point win in Virginia last November, but adjusted to represent a 50-50 race. Yet they are also based on the share of the vote each locality had last November, and some places might make up a larger or smaller share of the vote than they did in 2020. If bluer or redder places turn out at a very disproportionate rate, that’ll affect these benchmarks.

Lastly, we know that election officials will mostly report absentee votes first, which will be Democratic-leaning, so the types of votes each locality has reported will be an important caveat to keep in mind. As such, we plan to carefully contextualize these benchmarks tonight to avoid misleading you about how the race is going.