Virginia has owned much of the limelight, but New Jersey has a governor’s race of its own on the ballot today. Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy appears to be in line to win a second term, although Republican Jack Ciattarelli might keep the race somewhat closer than many might have expected.
Final polls of the race mostly showed Murphy ahead, but there has been some disagreement on the extent of his lead: In polls that reported results for likely voters, Monmouth University and Stockton University have the incumbent up by margins in the high single digits (Monmouth’s range was 8 to 14 points), while Emerson College put him ahead ahead only by 4 points when including undecided voters who leaned toward a candidate. Other polls from Rutgers University and Fairleigh Dickinson University found Murphy up by 8 to 9 points among registered voters.
That Murphy has a lead over Ciattarelli isn’t exactly surprising, as New Jersey is a bluer state than Virginia — Biden carried the Garden State by 16 points in November — and Murphy is fairly popular, according to polling on his approval rating or favorability rating as governor. However, Biden’s poor approval rating has likely helped Ciattarelli make it a closer contest, as polling in the summer had Murphy up by double digits.