It’s been difficult to assess what of the outstanding vote is still not processed in New Jersey, but ABC News election data now suggests that there are more than 300,000 votes outstanding across New Jersey’s 21 counties — and per our analysis, they seem more likely to help Murphy than Ciattarelli.
That’s because most of these votes appear to be absentee or provisional ballots — although a handful of counties still have some Election Day votes, too. But we think Murphy still stands to benefit since about two-thirds of the outstanding votes are in counties where Murphy currently leads, and Murphy has been winning absentee votes at a two-to-one rate.