An addendum to my last post that’s interesting but doesn’t really change the overall takeaway: Dark-blue Essex and Hudson counties are two of the few counties that aren’t exhibiting about a 15-point swing toward Republicans since 2020. That suggests to me that the votes we do have there are Democratic-leaning mail ballots, while the uncounted votes are Republican-leaning Election Day votes. However, these areas are so blue that even Election Day votes should be good for Murphy. Reporting from NBC News’s Steve Kornacki seems to confirm this theory, too.
