What’s Outstanding In New Jersey
Right now, Murphy leads Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race just 50 percent to 49 percent, but it’s been tough to know how to interpret that result since we don’t have reliable numbers about how many votes are outstanding and what type of ballots (Democratic-leaning mail votes or Republican-leaning Election Day votes) they are. But some back-of-the-napkin math I just did suggests that the uncounted vote should be disproportionately good for Murphy.
The table below shows each county in New Jersey, how it’s currently voting, and what its turnout rate is so far as a share of total votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. Of course, there’s no way that turnout in this off-year election was ever going to match 2020’s, but in a world where it’s extremely challenging to estimate expected voter turnout, 2020 at least provides a consistent turnout benchmark against which to measure the current results.
Bluer counties are reporting less in New Jersey
The margin and turnout (as a share of votes cast in 2020) in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, by county, as of 1 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 3
| County | Margin | % of 2020 Votes Reporting |
|---|---|---|
| Cape May | R+27 | 64% |
| Hunterdon | R+21 | 63 |
| Ocean | R+37 | 61 |
| Sussex | R+36 | 60 |
| Warren | R+31 | 57 |
| Morris | R+14 | 57 |
| Somerset | D+2 | 57 |
| Monmouth | R+23 | 57 |
| Gloucester | R+10 | 56 |
| Atlantic | R+12 | 56 |
| Salem | R+29 | 55 |
| Burlington | D+5 | 55 |
| Bergen | D+4 | 53 |
| Mercer | D+28 | 51 |
| Union | D+22 | 50 |
| Middlesex | D+9 | 49 |
| Cumberland | R+11 | 49 |
| Camden | D+23 | 48 |
| Passaic | D+2 | 47 |
| Essex | D+46 | 44 |
| Hudson | D+47 | 44 |
You’ll notice that several (mostly Republican-voting) counties are hovering around 60 percent of their 2020 turnout — and that several (mostly Democratic-voting) counties are still below 50 percent of 2020 turnout. That, in a nutshell, is why I think Murphy will pick up votes: If turnout reached 60 percent of 2020 levels in counties like Hunterdon and Ocean, it probably will at least approach 60 percent of 2020 levels in counties like Hudson and Essex when all is said and done. And given how strongly Democratic those two counties in particular are, it’s very likely that the uncounted votes there will break for Murphy.