FiveThirtyEight
Ryan Matsumoto

In Virginia, I was struck by the extent to which Youngkin was able to improve double-digits on Trump’s performance in many different counties across the state. It wasn’t just one demographic or region where he was able to make significant inroads — he gained in urban, suburban and rural areas. He gained in counties with high percentages of college-educated whites as well as in counties with high percentages on non-college-educated whites. There’s also some evidence suggesting that he may have gained a decent amount of ground with Black voters. This suggests that Republicans might be able to contest a wide array of districts and states in next year’s midterm elections if the political environment stays poor for Democrats.


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