That’s A Wrap … For Now
Many narratives will emerge regarding what tonight means for Democrats moving forward, given that Youngkin narrowly defeated McAuliffe in Virginia — a race that until the last few weeks of the campaign had been McAuliffe’s to lose, according to the polls — and the New Jersey governor’s race remains too close to call. In Virginia, it’s notable just how much Youngkin overperformed counties’ and cities’ 2020 benchmarks. Geoffrey and Ryan wrote about this extensively on the live blog, but Youngkin overperformed in most of Virginia’s largest cities and counties, which the table and map below show:
Youngkin overperformed across Virginia
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 1:45 a.m. on Nov. 3, 2021
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Fairfax Co. | 13.47% | D+32.4 | 95% | D+29.8 | R+2.6 |
| Pr. William Co. | 5.11 | D+17.2 | 99 | D+17.5 | D+0.3 |
| Va. Beach city | 5.10 | R+4.8 | 99 | R+8.4 | R+3.6 |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04 | D+15.2 | 95 | D+10.6 | R+4.7 |
| Chesterfield Co. | 4.57 | R+3.5 | 95 | R+9.7 | R+6.2 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 95 | D+18.1 | R+1.2 |
| Arlington Co. | 2.93 | D+54.7 | 95 | D+54.0 | R+0.7 |
| Chesapeake city | 2.85 | R+3.7 | 95 | R+6.1 | R+2.4 |
| Richmond city | 2.49 | D+59.2 | 95 | D+59.2 | D+0.1 |
| Norfolk city | 2.02 | D+36.3 | 95 | D+35.9 | R+0.5 |
| Alexandria city | 1.85 | D+53.7 | 95 | D+51.2 | R+2.5 |
| Newport News city | 1.82 | D+23.3 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+2.6 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 99 | R+11.2 | R+4.2 |
| Spotsylvania Co. | 1.69 | R+17.2 | 99 | R+21.7 | R+4.5 |
| Hanover Co. | 1.59 | R+37.6 | 99 | R+37.4 | D+0.2 |
| Hampton city | 1.48 | D+32.7 | 95 | D+34.1 | D+1.4 |
| Albemarle Co. | 1.45 | D+23.9 | 99 | D+24.6 | D+0.6 |
| Roanoke Co. | 1.28 | R+32.5 | 99 | R+32.6 | R+0.1 |
| Suffolk city | 1.11 | D+7.3 | 95 | D+4.4 | R+2.9 |
| James City Co. | 1.11 | R+5.4 | 95 | R+5.9 | R+0.5 |
| Frederick Co. | 1.09 | R+38.3 | 95 | R+39.1 | R+0.9 |
| Bedford Co. | 1.09 | R+59.3 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+0.1 |
| Montgomery Co. | 1.01 | R+4.4 | 94 | R+5.9 | R+1.5 |
| Portsmouth city | 1.00 | D+31.3 | 95 | D+32.2 | D+0.8 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 93 | R+56.5 | R+5.0 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+3.9 |
| Roanoke city | 0.97 | D+16.0 | 95 | D+16.2 | D+0.1 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 99 | R+57.0 | D+1.2 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 99 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Lynchburg city | 0.82 | R+7.6 | 95 | R+11.3 | R+3.7 |
| Pittsylvania Co. | 0.77 | R+50.6 | 99 | R+51.4 | R+0.8 |
| Campbell Co. | 0.67 | R+55.3 | 99 | R+57.6 | R+2.3 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 99 | R+50.6 | D+2.5 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+4.4 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 99 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Henry Co. | 0.59 | R+39.7 | 95 | R+40.2 | R+0.5 |
| Charl’ville city | 0.54 | D+63.7 | 99 | D+67.4 | D+3.7 |
| Shenandoah Co. | 0.53 | R+51.6 | 99 | R+50.6 | D+1.1 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 99 | R+29.7 | R+0.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 99 | R+45.8 | D+0.7 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 99 | R+33.4 | D+0.2 |
| Warren Co. | 0.47 | R+46.4 | 99 | R+45.0 | D+1.4 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 99 | R+53.5 | D+2.0 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 99 | R+33.8 | R+1.8 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 99 | R+74.1 | D+4.1 |
| Powhatan Co. | 0.44 | R+55.4 | 99 | R+54.5 | D+0.9 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 99 | D+7.1 | R+5.0 |
| Halifax Co. | 0.41 | R+25.5 | 99 | R+29.0 | R+3.5 |
| Pr. George Co. | 0.39 | R+27.7 | 99 | R+30.6 | R+2.9 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 99 | R+49.7 | D+2.8 |
| Harrisonburg city | 0.38 | D+22.4 | 95 | D+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 99 | R+43.2 | R+0.7 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Accomack Co. | 0.38 | R+19.8 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+2.6 |
| Goochland Co. | 0.38 | R+30.0 | 99 | R+32.8 | R+2.8 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 99 | R+69.0 | D+3.6 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 99 | R+16.0 | R+1.4 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 99 | R+30.5 | R+4.8 |
| Fluvanna Co. | 0.36 | R+15.1 | 99 | R+14.8 | D+0.3 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 99 | R+67.9 | D+5.7 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 99 | R+27.9 | R+1.1 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 99 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| New Kent Co. | 0.32 | R+45.5 | 95 | R+48.4 | R+2.9 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 99 | R+37.9 | R+5.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 99 | R+66.2 | D+1.0 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 99 | D+72.2 | D+5.2 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 99 | R+70.7 | D+3.8 |
| Salem city | 0.29 | R+30.1 | 99 | R+30.1 | EVEN |
| Staunton city | 0.29 | R+0.2 | 99 | D+3.0 | D+3.2 |
| Fred’burg city | 0.29 | D+25.4 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+4.7 |
| Page Co. | 0.28 | R+61.6 | 99 | R+58.8 | D+2.8 |
| Rockbridge Co. | 0.28 | R+43.2 | 99 | R+39.1 | D+4.1 |
| Winchester city | 0.27 | D+1.4 | 95 | D+1.0 | R+0.5 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 99 | R+36.7 | R+1.9 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 99 | R+74.8 | D+4.0 |
| King William Co. | 0.24 | R+48.7 | 99 | R+47.8 | D+0.9 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 95 | R+16.4 | R+0.8 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 99 | R+76.1 | D+4.0 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 99 | R+22.4 | R+3.8 |
| Southampton Co. | 0.22 | R+28.5 | 99 | R+31.0 | R+2.5 |
| Hopewell city | 0.22 | D+4.6 | 93 | R+1.1 | R+5.7 |
| Pr. Edward Co. | 0.21 | R+4.6 | 99 | R+10.3 | R+5.7 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 99 | R+65.7 | D+3.2 |
| Floyd Co. | 0.21 | R+45.2 | 99 | R+41.5 | D+3.7 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 99 | R+26.5 | R+2.2 |
| Nelson Co. | 0.21 | R+15.6 | 99 | R+12.9 | D+2.7 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 99 | R+61.7 | R+4.4 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 99 | R+58.6 | D+4.0 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.7 | R+4.6 |
| Falls Church city | 0.20 | D+55.2 | 95 | D+53.9 | R+1.3 |
| Alleghany Co. | 0.18 | R+54.9 | 95 | R+50.5 | D+4.4 |
| Grayson Co. | 0.18 | R+72.2 | 99 | R+66.3 | D+6.0 |
| Madison Co. | 0.18 | R+42.8 | 95 | R+41.8 | D+1.0 |
| Buckingham Co. | 0.18 | R+23.7 | 99 | R+28.2 | R+4.5 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 99 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+49.8 | R+1.3 |
| Poquoson city | 0.18 | R+56.7 | 95 | R+57.2 | R+0.5 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 99 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 99 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 99 | R+61.9 | D+6.9 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 99 | R+18.6 | R+3.7 |
| Nottoway Co. | 0.16 | R+25.4 | 99 | R+30.7 | R+5.3 |
| Williamsburg city | 0.15 | D+31.6 | 95 | D+29.3 | R+2.3 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 99 | R+34.0 | D+1.8 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 99 | R+2.9 | R+3.4 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Charlotte Co. | 0.14 | R+34.7 | 99 | R+42.1 | R+7.4 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 99 | R+16.2 | R+5.3 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 84 | D+20.8 | R+2.6 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 94 | D+12.4 | R+4.2 |
| Lunenburg Co. | 0.13 | R+29.1 | 99 | R+32.6 | R+3.5 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 99 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 99 | R+28.9 | R+3.5 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 99 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 99 | R+21.1 | D+3.8 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 99 | D+4.3 | R+1.1 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 99 | R+2.2 | R+0.3 |
| Charles City Co. | 0.10 | D+9.4 | 95 | D+0.5 | R+8.9 |
| King & Queen Co. | 0.09 | R+31.6 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+0.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 95 | D+12.2 | R+3.4 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 99 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Craig Co. | 0.07 | R+72.7 | 99 | R+67.9 | D+4.9 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 99 | D+22.3 | R+0.2 |
| Galax city | 0.06 | R+50.9 | 99 | R+50.7 | D+0.2 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 95 | R+37.3 | R+2.8 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 99 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Emporia city | 0.05 | D+26.0 | 99 | D+17.6 | R+8.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+2.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 99 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |
Part of this shift undoubtedly had to do with the fact that the electorate was very different than the one that voted in the 2020 presidential election. That is, in a state that voted for Biden by 10 percentage points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020. Forty-six percent said they cast their vote for Trump and 46 percent said Biden, suggesting that at least some Biden supporters sat this contest out. In terms of what motivated voters, per exit polls, the number one issue in Virginia was the economy (33 percent) followed by education (23 percent). While it’s easy to focus on the role education played in the race, given Youngkin’s success in campaigning on it, the story there seems to be more complicated given that voters, per these exit polls, broke for Youngkin at similar rates, regardless if they cared about the economy or education more. And given how close the race is still in New Jersey, it does seem as if what happened on Tuesday is a story of both macro- and micro-trends. On the one hand, we saw what happens in an election when there’s an unpopular Democratic president in the White House; on the other hand, we must now unpack what contributed to that environment. The answer is more complex than just Biden’s approval rating alone. We’ll be back tomorrow to give you updates on the race in New Jersey, but in the meantime, stay tuned for our late-night podcast that should hit your feeds by tomorrow a.m. and our reaction to the Virginia governor’s race.