FiveThirtyEight
Ryan Matsumoto

In Virginia, I think an underrated angle is the continuation of education polarization. Looking at the shifts by county from the 2020 presidential election, it seems like the broad Trump-era realignment by education continued tonight, just with a fairly uniform shift to the right among all types of counties. Youngkin gained ground throughout the state: in highly educated suburban counties outside D.C., but also in rural and urban counties elsewhere. One interesting example is suburban Loudoun County — although McAuliffe is doing about 5 points worse statewide than he did in 2013, he’s doing about 7 points better in Loudoun.


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