FiveThirtyEight
Ryan Best

Youngkin is the official winner in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, thanks to him beating his benchmarks across the more populous areas of the state. Youngkin overperformed across most of the state’s eastern counties and cities, which drove the highest proportions of the statewide vote in the 2020 presidential election. Those pink counties in the southwest corner of the state are relatively smaller, rural GOP-friendly areas — so even though McAuliffe did relatively better there, GOP margins were still quite large. Any improvement compared to Biden’s 2020 results weren’t enough to offset Youngkin’s overperformance in more populous suburban areas.


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