FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

As you wave at, Jacob, there’s already some chatter that the Republican upset in Texas’s special election runoff tonight might foreshadow large GOP gains in south Texas next year. As Geoffrey and I have written before, Hispanic voters trending further right in metro areas, specifically, could be an obstacle for Democrats — especially if Republicans continue to make inroads with Hispanic voters here and voters along the border, too. As such, it was already in Texas Republicans’ best interest to improve their margins in Hispanic communities in more populous areas (like HD-118) that lean Democratic.


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