Currently, Ciattarelli leads Murphy 50 percent to 49 percent in New Jersey, with about 80 percent of the vote counted. But it’s really hard to know where this race will end up, and that’s because the county-level results are all over the place. For instance, Murphy currently leads in Hudson County 74 percent to 25 percent, which is actually better than Biden did last year. But he only leads 56 percent to 43 percent in Mercer County — a county Biden carried by 40 points last year. My guess is that these discrepancies are due to different counties reporting different types of votes (in-person vs. absentee), but we don’t have any data on which counties have counted which type, so we’re just left to shrug our shoulders.
