What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
That's A Wrap
My colleagues Geoffrey, Nathaniel and Ryan posted earlier this evening about how the New Jersey governor’s race was Murphy’s to lose, as much of the outstanding vote was concentrated in Democratic areas of the state, and you should read that recap for a better understanding of how Murphy pulled off what looks to be a narrow victory.
We still don’t have all of the expected vote in — 87 percent per ABC News’s latest batch of election data — but ABC News can project that Murphy will win reelection in New Jersey, joining the AP in calling the race for Murphy.
As such, we’ll be shuttering our live blog coverage of the 2021 elections, and focusing our analysis elsewhere on what Tuesday’s elections can — and can’t — tell us about the national environment heading into the 2022 midterm elections.
Thanks as always for following along.
The Latest In New Jersey
This race looks to be Murphy’s to lose now, as Murphy now leads Ciattarelli by just under 1 percentage point. ABC News has not called the race, but the Associated Press has. At this point, we know that of the roughly 300,000 votes left to report around the state, around two-thirds are from Democratic-leaning counties and a large chunk of them are Democratic-leaning absentee votes.
And Murphy appears set to do just well enough to win a second term as New Jersey’s governor, as our benchmarks for the race based on the 2020 presidential election show in the map and table below. Murphy is running ahead where he needs to be in more places than he’s not, and additional votes reported in red-leaning counties like Monmouth have reduced Ciattarelli’s advantage in them, too. And the two bluest counties in the state, Essex (Newark) and Hudson (Jersey City) especially came through for Murphy.
It’s still closer than polling of the race suggested, but the Democratic incumbent can thank his lucky stars that he governs a blue state, while his Democratic counterpart in Virginia, Terry McAuliffe, came up just short in purpler Virginia — even though the states had somewhat similar swings to the right.
New Jersey results are giving off mixed signals
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 6:45 p.m. on Nov. 3, 2021
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Bergen Co. | 10.91% | D+0.5 | 93% | D+4.3 | D+3.8 |
| Monmouth Co. | 8.29 | R+19.0 | 91 | R+20.7 | R+1.8 |
| Middlesex Co. | 8.23 | D+6.2 | 86 | D+9.0 | D+2.8 |
| Essex Co. | 7.58 | D+39.8 | 83 | D+46.7 | D+7.0 |
| Ocean Co. | 7.51 | R+45.3 | 93 | R+36.9 | D+8.4 |
| Morris Co. | 6.59 | R+11.8 | 91 | R+14.3 | R+2.5 |
| Camden Co. | 5.82 | D+17.9 | 78 | D+22.7 | D+4.8 |
| Burlington Co. | 5.75 | D+3.7 | 92 | D+5.1 | D+1.4 |
| Union Co. | 5.57 | D+19.9 | 90 | D+22.8 | D+2.8 |
| Hudson Co. | 5.49 | D+30.7 | 79 | D+47.6 | D+16.9 |
| Passaic Co. | 4.91 | D+0.6 | 88 | D+1.9 | D+1.2 |
| Somerset Co. | 4.09 | D+5.2 | 93 | D+2.1 | R+3.2 |
| Mercer Co. | 3.88 | D+24.6 | 87 | D+28.3 | D+3.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 3.80 | R+14.2 | 93 | R+10.3 | D+3.8 |
| Atlantic Co. | 3.07 | R+9.4 | 93 | R+12.2 | R+2.8 |
| Sussex Co. | 1.94 | R+36.1 | 92 | R+36.1 | D+0.1 |
| Hunterdon Co. | 1.85 | R+20.6 | 91 | R+19.6 | D+1.0 |
| Cumberland Co. | 1.37 | R+10.0 | 91 | R+12.0 | R+2.0 |
| Warren Co. | 1.34 | R+32.7 | 90 | R+31.5 | D+1.2 |
| Cape May Co. | 1.27 | R+32.3 | 93 | R+27.0 | D+5.3 |
| Salem Co. | 0.75 | R+29.2 | 90 | R+29.7 | R+0.5 |
Our colleagues at ABC News have yet to make a projection in New Jersey, but the Associated Press has just called the race for Murphy, who currently leads 50.0 percent to 49.2 percent.