What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
The Latest In New Jersey
This race looks to be Murphy’s to lose now, as Murphy now leads Ciattarelli by just under 1 percentage point. ABC News has not called the race, but the Associated Press has. At this point, we know that of the roughly 300,000 votes left to report around the state, around two-thirds are from Democratic-leaning counties and a large chunk of them are Democratic-leaning absentee votes.
And Murphy appears set to do just well enough to win a second term as New Jersey’s governor, as our benchmarks for the race based on the 2020 presidential election show in the map and table below. Murphy is running ahead where he needs to be in more places than he’s not, and additional votes reported in red-leaning counties like Monmouth have reduced Ciattarelli’s advantage in them, too. And the two bluest counties in the state, Essex (Newark) and Hudson (Jersey City) especially came through for Murphy.
It’s still closer than polling of the race suggested, but the Democratic incumbent can thank his lucky stars that he governs a blue state, while his Democratic counterpart in Virginia, Terry McAuliffe, came up just short in purpler Virginia — even though the states had somewhat similar swings to the right.
New Jersey results are giving off mixed signals
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 6:45 p.m. on Nov. 3, 2021
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Bergen Co. | 10.91% | D+0.5 | 93% | D+4.3 | D+3.8 |
| Monmouth Co. | 8.29 | R+19.0 | 91 | R+20.7 | R+1.8 |
| Middlesex Co. | 8.23 | D+6.2 | 86 | D+9.0 | D+2.8 |
| Essex Co. | 7.58 | D+39.8 | 83 | D+46.7 | D+7.0 |
| Ocean Co. | 7.51 | R+45.3 | 93 | R+36.9 | D+8.4 |
| Morris Co. | 6.59 | R+11.8 | 91 | R+14.3 | R+2.5 |
| Camden Co. | 5.82 | D+17.9 | 78 | D+22.7 | D+4.8 |
| Burlington Co. | 5.75 | D+3.7 | 92 | D+5.1 | D+1.4 |
| Union Co. | 5.57 | D+19.9 | 90 | D+22.8 | D+2.8 |
| Hudson Co. | 5.49 | D+30.7 | 79 | D+47.6 | D+16.9 |
| Passaic Co. | 4.91 | D+0.6 | 88 | D+1.9 | D+1.2 |
| Somerset Co. | 4.09 | D+5.2 | 93 | D+2.1 | R+3.2 |
| Mercer Co. | 3.88 | D+24.6 | 87 | D+28.3 | D+3.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 3.80 | R+14.2 | 93 | R+10.3 | D+3.8 |
| Atlantic Co. | 3.07 | R+9.4 | 93 | R+12.2 | R+2.8 |
| Sussex Co. | 1.94 | R+36.1 | 92 | R+36.1 | D+0.1 |
| Hunterdon Co. | 1.85 | R+20.6 | 91 | R+19.6 | D+1.0 |
| Cumberland Co. | 1.37 | R+10.0 | 91 | R+12.0 | R+2.0 |
| Warren Co. | 1.34 | R+32.7 | 90 | R+31.5 | D+1.2 |
| Cape May Co. | 1.27 | R+32.3 | 93 | R+27.0 | D+5.3 |
| Salem Co. | 0.75 | R+29.2 | 90 | R+29.7 | R+0.5 |
Our colleagues at ABC News have yet to make a projection in New Jersey, but the Associated Press has just called the race for Murphy, who currently leads 50.0 percent to 49.2 percent.
It’s been difficult to assess what of the outstanding vote is still not processed in New Jersey, but ABC News election data now suggests that there are more than 300,000 votes outstanding across New Jersey’s 21 counties — and per our analysis, they seem more likely to help Murphy than Ciattarelli.
That’s because most of these votes appear to be absentee or provisional ballots — although a handful of counties still have some Election Day votes, too. But we think Murphy still stands to benefit since about two-thirds of the outstanding votes are in counties where Murphy currently leads, and Murphy has been winning absentee votes at a two-to-one rate.