What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

Based on analysis of the vote, ABC News projects that the Republican Winsome Sears will win the Virginia lieutenant governorship. As I mentioned earlier, her win is notable, in part, because she makes history as the first Black woman and woman of color to serve in the post.

In Virginia, I think an underrated angle is the continuation of education polarization. Looking at the shifts by county from the 2020 presidential election, it seems like the broad Trump-era realignment by education continued tonight, just with a fairly uniform shift to the right among all types of counties. Youngkin gained ground throughout the state: in highly educated suburban counties outside D.C., but also in rural and urban counties elsewhere. One interesting example is suburban Loudoun County — although McAuliffe is doing about 5 points worse statewide than he did in 2013, he’s doing about 7 points better in Loudoun.

Well, it might be a little later in the night than we had hoped, but we’re going into Wednesday morning with the results of Virginia’s governor’s race. There’s going to be a lot of speculation about what the outcome means for 2022, and it’s fair to say that it’s not a great sign for Democrats. That said, there’s no clear answer as to how Democrats can rectify their problems before November, and there’s no way to make an apples-to-apples comparison between today’s gubernatorial race and the upcoming midterms. Trump will likely be more involved in November, when there will be a bigger congressional and gubernatorial battleground, with the added uncertainty of newly drawn congressional maps after redistricting. Today offered a temperature check for the national environment, and it seems that Republicans are enjoying the perks of the opposing party’s first term in the presidency. From here, continue to read polling wisely and watch which candidates emerge in key races.