What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
Well, it might be a little later in the night than we had hoped, but we’re going into Wednesday morning with the results of Virginia’s governor’s race. There’s going to be a lot of speculation about what the outcome means for 2022, and it’s fair to say that it’s not a great sign for Democrats. That said, there’s no clear answer as to how Democrats can rectify their problems before November, and there’s no way to make an apples-to-apples comparison between today’s gubernatorial race and the upcoming midterms. Trump will likely be more involved in November, when there will be a bigger congressional and gubernatorial battleground, with the added uncertainty of newly drawn congressional maps after redistricting. Today offered a temperature check for the national environment, and it seems that Republicans are enjoying the perks of the opposing party’s first term in the presidency. From here, continue to read polling wisely and watch which candidates emerge in key races.
We’re going to spend a lot of time talking about why certain issues mattered in the election, but the long and short of the Virginia result mostly comes down to Biden being unpopular as well as differential turnout, whereby Republicans turned out at somewhat higher rates than Democrats. The exit polls showed the electorate’s recalled 2020 vote was Biden +2 in a state that the president carried by 10 points. Many Virginians and Americans in general aren’t happy with the status quo, and that showed.
Youngkin is the official winner in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, thanks to him beating his benchmarks across the more populous areas of the state. Youngkin overperformed across most of the state’s eastern counties and cities, which drove the highest proportions of the statewide vote in the 2020 presidential election. Those pink counties in the southwest corner of the state are relatively smaller, rural GOP-friendly areas — so even though McAuliffe did relatively better there, GOP margins were still quite large. Any improvement compared to Biden’s 2020 results weren’t enough to offset Youngkin’s overperformance in more populous suburban areas.
