Updated |
What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
In our last major mayoral race of the night, moderate Bruce Harrell leads progressive Lorena González by a strong 65 percent to 35 percent margin in the open-seat race for mayor of Seattle.
With the race now called for Youngkin, we can see how he outperformed the benchmarks we drew up in most of the largest cities and counties in Virginia, which explains why he won. Among the 10 localities that provided at least 2 percent of the statewide vote in 2020 (we won’t know their exact share in 2021 for a little while longer), Youngkin did better than the benchmark margin in eight of them. And the two where McAuliffe did better, Prince William County and Richmond city, were barely more Democratic than the benchmark figure.
Youngkin has overperformed across Virginia tonight
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Fairfax Co. | 13.47% | D+32.4 | 95% | D+29.8 | R+2.7 |
| Pr. William Co. | 5.11 | D+17.2 | 95 | D+17.5 | D+0.3 |
| Va. Beach city | 5.10 | R+4.8 | 99 | R+8.4 | R+3.6 |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04 | D+15.2 | 95 | D+10.6 | R+4.7 |
| Chesterfield Co. | 4.57 | R+3.5 | 61 | R+12.2 | R+8.7 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 95 | D+18.1 | R+1.2 |
| Arlington Co. | 2.93 | D+54.7 | 95 | D+54.0 | R+0.7 |
| Chesapeake city | 2.85 | R+3.7 | 95 | R+6.1 | R+2.4 |
| Richmond city | 2.49 | D+59.2 | 95 | D+59.2 | D+0.1 |
| Norfolk city | 2.02 | D+36.3 | 75 | D+32.8 | R+3.5 |
| Alexandria city | 1.85 | D+53.7 | 95 | D+51.2 | R+2.5 |
| Newport News city | 1.82 | D+23.3 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+2.6 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 95 | R+11.2 | R+4.2 |
| Spotsylvania Co. | 1.69 | R+17.2 | 95 | R+21.7 | R+4.5 |
| Hanover Co. | 1.59 | R+37.6 | 99 | R+37.4 | D+0.2 |
| Hampton city | 1.48 | D+32.7 | 95 | D+34.1 | D+1.4 |
| Albemarle Co. | 1.45 | D+23.9 | 99 | D+24.6 | D+0.6 |
| Roanoke Co. | 1.28 | R+32.5 | 95 | R+32.6 | R+0.1 |
| Suffolk city | 1.11 | D+7.3 | 95 | D+4.4 | R+2.9 |
| James City Co. | 1.11 | R+5.4 | 95 | R+11.2 | R+5.8 |
| Frederick Co. | 1.09 | R+38.3 | 95 | R+39.1 | R+0.9 |
| Bedford Co. | 1.09 | R+59.3 | 99 | R+59.3 | D+0.1 |
| Montgomery Co. | 1.01 | R+4.4 | 95 | R+5.9 | R+1.5 |
| Portsmouth city | 1.00 | D+31.3 | 95 | D+32.2 | D+0.8 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 86 | R+61.9 | R+10.4 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+3.9 |
| Roanoke city | 0.97 | D+16.0 | 95 | D+16.2 | D+0.1 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 99 | R+57.0 | D+1.2 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 95 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Lynchburg city | 0.82 | R+7.6 | 95 | R+11.3 | R+3.7 |
| Pittsylvania Co. | 0.77 | R+50.6 | 95 | R+51.4 | R+0.8 |
| Campbell Co. | 0.67 | R+55.3 | 99 | R+57.6 | R+2.3 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 99 | R+50.6 | D+2.5 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+4.4 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 99 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Henry Co. | 0.59 | R+39.7 | 79 | R+44.9 | R+5.2 |
| Charl’ville city | 0.54 | D+63.7 | 95 | D+67.4 | D+3.7 |
| Shenandoah Co. | 0.53 | R+51.6 | 95 | R+50.6 | D+1.1 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 95 | R+29.7 | R+0.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 99 | R+45.8 | D+0.7 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 95 | R+33.4 | D+0.2 |
| Warren Co. | 0.47 | R+46.4 | 95 | R+45.0 | D+1.4 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 99 | R+53.5 | D+2.0 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 95 | R+33.8 | R+1.8 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 95 | R+74.1 | D+4.1 |
| Powhatan Co. | 0.44 | R+55.4 | 99 | R+54.5 | D+0.9 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 95 | D+7.1 | R+5.0 |
| Halifax Co. | 0.41 | R+25.5 | 95 | R+29.0 | R+3.5 |
| Pr. George Co. | 0.39 | R+27.7 | 95 | R+30.6 | R+2.9 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 95 | R+49.7 | D+2.8 |
| Harrisonburg city | 0.38 | D+22.4 | 95 | D+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 99 | R+43.2 | R+0.7 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Accomack Co. | 0.38 | R+19.8 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+2.6 |
| Goochland Co. | 0.38 | R+30.0 | 99 | R+32.8 | R+2.8 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 95 | R+69.0 | D+3.6 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 99 | R+16.0 | R+1.4 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 99 | R+30.5 | R+4.8 |
| Fluvanna Co. | 0.36 | R+15.1 | 99 | R+14.8 | D+0.3 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 99 | R+67.9 | D+5.7 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 99 | R+27.9 | R+1.1 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| New Kent Co. | 0.32 | R+45.5 | 95 | R+48.4 | R+2.9 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 99 | R+37.9 | R+5.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 99 | R+66.2 | D+1.0 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 99 | D+72.2 | D+5.2 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 95 | R+70.7 | D+3.8 |
| Salem city | 0.29 | R+30.1 | 99 | R+30.1 | EVEN |
| Staunton city | 0.29 | R+0.2 | 99 | D+3.0 | D+3.2 |
| Fred’burg city | 0.29 | D+25.4 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+4.7 |
| Page Co. | 0.28 | R+61.6 | 99 | R+58.8 | D+2.8 |
| Rockbridge Co. | 0.28 | R+43.2 | 99 | R+39.1 | D+4.1 |
| Winchester city | 0.27 | D+1.4 | 95 | D+1.0 | R+0.5 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 95 | R+36.7 | R+1.9 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 99 | R+74.8 | D+4.0 |
| King William Co. | 0.24 | R+48.7 | 95 | R+47.8 | D+0.9 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 95 | R+16.4 | R+0.8 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 95 | R+76.1 | D+4.0 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+3.8 |
| Southampton Co. | 0.22 | R+28.5 | 95 | R+31.0 | R+2.5 |
| Hopewell city | 0.22 | D+4.6 | 93 | R+1.1 | R+5.7 |
| Pr. Edward Co. | 0.21 | R+4.6 | 95 | R+10.3 | R+5.7 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 95 | R+65.7 | D+3.2 |
| Floyd Co. | 0.21 | R+45.2 | 99 | R+41.5 | D+3.7 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 99 | R+26.5 | R+2.2 |
| Nelson Co. | 0.21 | R+15.6 | 95 | R+12.9 | D+2.7 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 99 | R+61.7 | R+4.4 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 99 | R+58.6 | D+4.0 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.7 | R+4.6 |
| Falls Church city | 0.20 | D+55.2 | 95 | D+53.9 | R+1.3 |
| Alleghany Co. | 0.18 | R+54.9 | 95 | R+50.5 | D+4.4 |
| Grayson Co. | 0.18 | R+72.2 | 99 | R+66.3 | D+6.0 |
| Madison Co. | 0.18 | R+42.8 | 95 | R+41.8 | D+1.0 |
| Buckingham Co. | 0.18 | R+23.7 | 99 | R+28.2 | R+4.5 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 99 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+49.8 | R+1.3 |
| Poquoson city | 0.18 | R+56.7 | 95 | R+57.2 | R+0.5 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 93 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 99 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 99 | R+61.9 | D+6.9 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 95 | R+18.6 | R+3.7 |
| Nottoway Co. | 0.16 | R+25.4 | 95 | R+30.7 | R+5.3 |
| Williamsburg city | 0.15 | D+31.6 | 95 | D+29.3 | R+2.3 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 95 | R+34.0 | D+1.8 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 95 | R+2.9 | R+3.4 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Charlotte Co. | 0.14 | R+34.7 | 99 | R+42.1 | R+7.4 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 99 | R+16.2 | R+5.3 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 84 | D+20.8 | R+2.6 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 94 | D+12.4 | R+4.2 |
| Lunenburg Co. | 0.13 | R+29.1 | 95 | R+32.6 | R+3.5 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 95 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 99 | R+28.9 | R+3.5 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 99 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 95 | R+21.1 | D+3.8 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 99 | D+4.3 | R+1.1 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 95 | R+2.2 | R+0.3 |
| Charles City Co. | 0.10 | D+9.4 | 95 | D+0.5 | R+8.9 |
| King & Queen Co. | 0.09 | R+31.6 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+0.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 95 | D+12.2 | R+3.4 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 99 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Craig Co. | 0.07 | R+72.7 | 99 | R+67.9 | D+4.9 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 99 | D+22.3 | R+0.2 |
| Galax city | 0.06 | R+50.9 | 99 | R+50.7 | D+0.2 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 95 | R+37.3 | R+2.8 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 99 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Emporia city | 0.05 | D+26.0 | 95 | D+17.6 | R+8.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+2.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 99 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |
Youngkin is currently ahead by 2.7 points (though this margin may decrease a bit with remaining absentee votes). The final polling average had Youngkin ahead by 1 point, so it seems like the polling average will be within 2 points, maybe even within 1.5 points, of the final result. The polls were pretty accurate in this race!