FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Currently, Ciattarelli leads Murphy 50 percent to 49 percent in New Jersey, with about 80 percent of the vote counted. But it’s really hard to know where this race will end up, and that’s because the county-level results are all over the place. For instance, Murphy currently leads in Hudson County 74 percent to 25 percent, which is actually better than Biden did last year. But he only leads 56 percent to 43 percent in Mercer County — a county Biden carried by 40 points last year. My guess is that these discrepancies are due to different counties reporting different types of votes (in-person vs. absentee), but we don’t have any data on which counties have counted which type, so we’re just left to shrug our shoulders.

Oren Oppenheim

Even with a close race in New Jersey, no one is giving up, and Team Murphy is leaning into the fact that not all votes have been counted yet. New Jersey Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver addressed supporters late Tuesday night at the Murphy campaign headquarters in Asbury Park.

“Now, our adversaries may be jumping up and down with glee. But let me tell you something: I know Essex, my home county. I know how we roll. And we know that the votes in that Democratic stronghold have yet to be counted in total. Bergen County, the home of our beloved Sen. Loretta Weinberg — Bergen is still counting. Union, still counting. Middlesex, still counting,” she said.

Nathaniel Rakich

In our last major mayoral race of the night, moderate Bruce Harrell leads progressive Lorena González by a strong 65 percent to 35 percent margin in the open-seat race for mayor of Seattle.


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