What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

Alex Samuels

McAuliffe may not have conceded, but the mood among his family, aides and supporters was solemn — a physical acknowledgment of their prospects.

Off stage, some in McAuliffe’s family were in tears. Aides were consoling each other. And some electeds couldn't leave fast enough.
— Dan Merica (@merica) November 3, 2021

Jacob Rubashkin

10:39 pm

Trump is already fundraising off of the (as yet uncalled but increasingly likely) Youngkin win. I just received this in my inbox

Geoffrey Skelley

10:38 pm

The expected vote from ABC News is now at 3.25 million, so if we assume almost 400,000 votes are left outstanding, McAuliffe would need to win two-thirds of them to take a very slight lead over Youngkin. That sounds unlikely, and it probably is, but we do know that around 325,000 early votes are outstanding, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Those should be Democratic-leaning.

But the question is, how Democratic leaning? Well, VPAP suggests nearly 60,000 early votes are left in Prince William County outside of Washington, D.C., which is a Democratic-leaning county at its baseline. The city of Norfolk, which has a sizable Black population, has 74 percent of its expected vote in. Then slightly GOP-leaning places like Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach city are only about 60 to 65 percent in so far, and between them they have nearly 125,000 early votes to count. The race will tighten a fair bit more, but I’m not sure there’s enough out there for McAuliffe to actually win.

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