What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

The expected vote from ABC News is now at 3.25 million, so if we assume almost 400,000 votes are left outstanding, McAuliffe would need to win two-thirds of them to take a very slight lead over Youngkin. That sounds unlikely, and it probably is, but we do know that around 325,000 early votes are outstanding, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Those should be Democratic-leaning.

But the question is, how Democratic leaning? Well, VPAP suggests nearly 60,000 early votes are left in Prince William County outside of Washington, D.C., which is a Democratic-leaning county at its baseline. The city of Norfolk, which has a sizable Black population, has 74 percent of its expected vote in. Then slightly GOP-leaning places like Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach city are only about 60 to 65 percent in so far, and between them they have nearly 125,000 early votes to count. The race will tighten a fair bit more, but I’m not sure there’s enough out there for McAuliffe to actually win.

TV networks like CNN just cut to McAuliffe, who was addressing supporters just now. As Nathaniel pointed out, he hasn’t conceded this race, but with 88 percent of the expected vote in, and Youngkin leading 52 percent to 48 percent, how much more can this race tighten? Where are we still waiting for the vote?

Rick Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is taking a victory lap. Now, the question is whether tonight’s results help him encourage Republicans who had previously been on the fence about running for Senate (New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, especially) to take the plunge.