What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
Using our benchmark vote margins in each Virginia locality, Youngkin is outperforming where he needs to win. Although some localities have only reported some of their vote, and some have not reported their Democratic-leaning absentee ballots, this looks like Youngkin’s race to lose at this point.
Results so far are favorable for Youngkin
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Fairfax Co. | 13.47% | D+32.4 | 87% | D+30.2 | R+2.2 |
| Pr. William Co. | 5.11 | D+17.2 | 57 | D+5.4 | R+11.8 |
| Va. Beach city | 5.10 | R+4.8 | 64 | R+18.2 | R+13.4 |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04 | D+15.2 | 95 | D+9.9 | R+5.3 |
| Chesterfield Co. | 4.57 | R+3.5 | 56 | R+11.6 | R+8.1 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 95 | D+18.1 | R+1.2 |
| Arlington Co. | 2.93 | D+54.7 | 95 | D+54.1 | R+0.7 |
| Richmond city | 2.49 | D+59.2 | 61 | D+52.1 | R+7.0 |
| Norfolk city | 2.02 | D+36.3 | 74 | D+33.0 | R+3.3 |
| Newport News city | 1.82 | D+23.3 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+2.6 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 95 | R+15.4 | R+8.4 |
| Spotsylvania Co. | 1.69 | R+17.2 | 95 | R+21.7 | R+4.5 |
| Hanover Co. | 1.59 | R+37.6 | 95 | R+37.4 | D+0.2 |
| Hampton city | 1.48 | D+32.7 | 95 | D+34.0 | D+1.4 |
| Albemarle Co. | 1.45 | D+23.9 | 95 | D+25.5 | D+1.6 |
| Roanoke Co. | 1.28 | R+32.5 | 95 | R+32.5 | EVEN |
| Suffolk city | 1.11 | D+7.3 | 66 | R+12.5 | R+19.8 |
| James City Co. | 1.11 | R+5.4 | 53 | R+22.7 | R+17.3 |
| Frederick Co. | 1.09 | R+38.3 | 95 | R+38.9 | R+0.6 |
| Bedford Co. | 1.09 | R+59.3 | 83 | R+68.5 | R+9.2 |
| Montgomery Co. | 1.01 | R+4.4 | 95 | R+11.8 | R+7.4 |
| Portsmouth city | 1.00 | D+31.3 | 95 | D+32.2 | D+0.8 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 86 | R+61.9 | R+10.4 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 69 | R+44.4 | R+16.5 |
| Roanoke city | 0.97 | D+16.0 | 69 | D+9.3 | R+6.7 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 86 | R+61.1 | R+3.0 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 95 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Lynchburg city | 0.82 | R+7.6 | 88 | R+18.1 | R+10.5 |
| Pittsylvania Co. | 0.77 | R+50.6 | 95 | R+51.4 | R+0.8 |
| Campbell Co. | 0.67 | R+55.3 | 82 | R+66.5 | R+11.3 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 95 | R+49.0 | D+4.1 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+4.4 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 95 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Henry Co. | 0.59 | R+39.7 | 73 | R+50.4 | R+10.7 |
| Charl’ville city | 0.54 | D+63.7 | 75 | D+63.5 | R+0.2 |
| Shenandoah Co. | 0.53 | R+51.6 | 78 | R+63.0 | R+11.4 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 95 | R+29.7 | R+0.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 95 | R+45.8 | D+0.7 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 95 | R+33.4 | D+0.2 |
| Warren Co. | 0.47 | R+46.4 | 72 | R+59.7 | R+13.2 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 99 | R+53.5 | D+2.0 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 95 | R+33.8 | R+1.8 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 95 | R+74.1 | D+4.1 |
| Powhatan Co. | 0.44 | R+55.4 | 51 | R+62.2 | R+6.8 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 95 | D+7.1 | R+5.0 |
| Halifax Co. | 0.41 | R+25.5 | 95 | R+29.0 | R+3.5 |
| Pr. George Co. | 0.39 | R+27.7 | 95 | R+30.6 | R+2.9 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 95 | R+49.7 | D+2.8 |
| Harrisonburg city | 0.38 | D+22.4 | 95 | D+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 82 | R+53.4 | R+11.0 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Accomack Co. | 0.38 | R+19.8 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+2.6 |
| Goochland Co. | 0.38 | R+30.0 | 95 | R+30.7 | R+0.6 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 95 | R+69.0 | D+3.6 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 95 | R+16.0 | R+1.4 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 99 | R+30.5 | R+4.8 |
| Fluvanna Co. | 0.36 | R+15.1 | 95 | R+14.8 | D+0.3 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 95 | R+67.9 | D+5.7 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 95 | R+27.9 | R+1.1 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| New Kent Co. | 0.32 | R+45.5 | 95 | R+48.4 | R+2.9 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 99 | R+37.9 | R+5.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 99 | R+66.2 | D+1.0 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 99 | D+72.2 | D+5.2 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 95 | R+70.7 | D+3.8 |
| Salem city | 0.29 | R+30.1 | 99 | R+30.1 | EVEN |
| Staunton city | 0.29 | R+0.2 | 99 | D+3.0 | D+3.2 |
| Fred’burg city | 0.29 | D+25.4 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+4.7 |
| Page Co. | 0.28 | R+61.6 | 95 | R+58.8 | D+2.8 |
| Rockbridge Co. | 0.28 | R+43.2 | 83 | R+56.2 | R+13.0 |
| Winchester city | 0.27 | D+1.4 | 95 | D+1.0 | R+0.5 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 95 | R+36.7 | R+1.9 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 99 | R+74.8 | D+4.0 |
| King William Co. | 0.24 | R+48.7 | 95 | R+47.8 | D+0.9 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 95 | R+16.4 | R+0.8 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 95 | R+76.1 | D+4.0 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+3.8 |
| Southampton Co. | 0.22 | R+28.5 | 95 | R+31.0 | R+2.5 |
| Pr. Edward Co. | 0.21 | R+4.6 | 95 | R+10.3 | R+5.7 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 95 | R+65.7 | D+3.2 |
| Floyd Co. | 0.21 | R+45.2 | 99 | R+41.5 | D+3.7 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 95 | R+26.5 | R+2.2 |
| Nelson Co. | 0.21 | R+15.6 | 95 | R+12.9 | D+2.7 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 95 | R+61.7 | R+4.4 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 72 | R+67.4 | R+4.8 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.7 | R+4.6 |
| Falls Church city | 0.20 | D+55.2 | 95 | D+53.9 | R+1.3 |
| Alleghany Co. | 0.18 | R+54.9 | 95 | R+50.5 | D+4.4 |
| Grayson Co. | 0.18 | R+72.2 | 99 | R+66.3 | D+6.0 |
| Madison Co. | 0.18 | R+42.8 | 95 | R+41.8 | D+1.0 |
| Buckingham Co. | 0.18 | R+23.7 | 95 | R+28.2 | R+4.5 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 87 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+49.8 | R+1.3 |
| Poquoson city | 0.18 | R+56.7 | 95 | R+57.2 | R+0.5 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 93 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 99 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 90 | R+64.9 | D+3.9 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 95 | R+18.6 | R+3.7 |
| Nottoway Co. | 0.16 | R+25.4 | 99 | R+30.6 | R+5.2 |
| Williamsburg city | 0.15 | D+31.6 | 95 | D+29.3 | R+2.3 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 95 | R+34.0 | D+1.8 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 95 | R+2.9 | R+3.4 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Charlotte Co. | 0.14 | R+34.7 | 95 | R+42.1 | R+7.4 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 99 | R+16.2 | R+5.3 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 84 | D+20.8 | R+2.6 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 94 | D+12.4 | R+4.2 |
| Lunenburg Co. | 0.13 | R+29.1 | 95 | R+32.6 | R+3.5 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 95 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 95 | R+28.9 | R+3.5 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 99 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 95 | R+21.1 | D+3.8 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 99 | D+4.3 | R+1.1 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 95 | R+2.2 | R+0.3 |
| Charles City Co. | 0.10 | D+9.4 | 95 | D+0.5 | R+8.9 |
| King & Queen Co. | 0.09 | R+31.6 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+0.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 95 | D+12.2 | R+3.4 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 88 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Craig Co. | 0.07 | R+72.7 | 95 | R+67.9 | D+4.9 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 99 | D+22.3 | R+0.2 |
| Galax city | 0.06 | R+50.9 | 99 | R+50.7 | D+0.2 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 95 | R+37.3 | R+2.8 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 95 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Emporia city | 0.05 | D+26.0 | 95 | D+17.6 | R+8.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+2.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 99 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |
Fairfax County, which usually casts about 1 in 7 of the votes in Virginia elections, has reported 87 percent of its expected vote, and while McAuliffe is up by 30 points there, Youngkin is performing well enough that the county is running a couple points to the right of our benchmark margin. Biden won by 42 points there last November, and McAuliffe really needs to outperform there to have a chance, considering some other big localities like Loudoun County are running to the right of our benchmarks as well.
The Associated Press has called the special election in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District for Republican Mike Carey. Carey currently leads 57 percent to 43 percent; if that margin holds, it would actually represent a relatively weak Republican showing in this R+19 district. Just to muddle the narrative somewhat.
I think the final result in New Jersey could shed some light on the thermostatic vs. policy-specific debate. If Murphy’s win is in the mid-single digits, that seems like a fairly good piece of evidence toward thermostatic. Ciattarelli ran on property taxes, not CRT. If Murphy wins by more, then the picture is more muddled by incumbency and things of that nature.