What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
Using our benchmark vote margins in each Virginia locality, Youngkin is outperforming where he needs to win. Although some localities have only reported some of their vote, and many places have not reported their Democratic-leaning absentee ballots, the general trajectory of the race is clearly more favorable for Youngkin at this point.
Early returns are favorable for Youngkin — with caveats
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Fairfax Co. | 13.47% | D+32.4 | 87% | D+30.2 | R+2.2 |
| Pr. William Co. | 5.11 | D+17.2 | 56 | D+5.9 | R+11.3 |
| Va. Beach city | 5.10 | R+4.8 | 60 | R+18.3 | R+13.5 |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04 | D+15.2 | 95 | D+9.9 | R+5.3 |
| Chesterfield Co. | 4.57 | R+3.5 | 55 | R+11.8 | R+8.3 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 95 | D+18.1 | R+1.2 |
| Arlington Co. | 2.93 | D+54.7 | 95 | D+54.2 | R+0.5 |
| Newport News city | 1.82 | D+23.3 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+2.6 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 73 | R+20.6 | R+13.6 |
| Spotsylvania Co. | 1.69 | R+17.2 | 95 | R+21.1 | R+3.8 |
| Hanover Co. | 1.59 | R+37.6 | 74 | R+44.3 | R+6.6 |
| Hampton city | 1.48 | D+32.7 | 95 | D+34.0 | D+1.4 |
| Albemarle Co. | 1.45 | D+23.9 | 95 | D+25.5 | D+1.6 |
| Roanoke Co. | 1.28 | R+32.5 | 85 | R+36.7 | R+4.2 |
| Suffolk city | 1.11 | D+7.3 | 66 | R+12.5 | R+19.8 |
| James City Co. | 1.11 | R+5.4 | 53 | R+22.7 | R+17.3 |
| Frederick Co. | 1.09 | R+38.3 | 95 | R+38.9 | R+0.6 |
| Bedford Co. | 1.09 | R+59.3 | 83 | R+68.5 | R+9.2 |
| Montgomery Co. | 1.01 | R+4.4 | 95 | R+11.8 | R+7.4 |
| Portsmouth city | 1.00 | D+31.3 | 69 | D+20.0 | R+11.3 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 86 | R+61.9 | R+10.4 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 69 | R+44.4 | R+16.5 |
| Roanoke city | 0.97 | D+16.0 | 59 | D+1.0 | R+15.1 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 86 | R+61.1 | R+3.0 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 95 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Lynchburg city | 0.82 | R+7.6 | 66 | R+29.8 | R+22.2 |
| Pittsylvania Co. | 0.77 | R+50.6 | 95 | R+51.4 | R+0.8 |
| Campbell Co. | 0.67 | R+55.3 | 82 | R+66.5 | R+11.3 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 95 | R+49.0 | D+4.1 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+4.4 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 95 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Henry Co. | 0.59 | R+39.7 | 73 | R+50.4 | R+10.7 |
| Charl’ville city | 0.54 | D+63.7 | 52 | D+61.9 | R+1.8 |
| Shenandoah Co. | 0.53 | R+51.6 | 78 | R+63.0 | R+11.4 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 95 | R+29.7 | R+0.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 95 | R+45.8 | D+0.7 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 95 | R+33.4 | D+0.2 |
| Warren Co. | 0.47 | R+46.4 | 72 | R+59.7 | R+13.2 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 99 | R+53.5 | D+2.0 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 95 | R+33.8 | R+1.8 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 95 | R+74.1 | D+4.1 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 95 | D+7.1 | R+5.0 |
| Halifax Co. | 0.41 | R+25.5 | 95 | R+29.0 | R+3.5 |
| Pr. George Co. | 0.39 | R+27.7 | 95 | R+30.6 | R+2.9 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 95 | R+49.7 | D+2.8 |
| Harrisonburg city | 0.38 | D+22.4 | 95 | D+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 77 | R+53.0 | R+10.6 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Accomack Co. | 0.38 | R+19.8 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+2.6 |
| Goochland Co. | 0.38 | R+30.0 | 95 | R+30.7 | R+0.6 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 95 | R+69.0 | D+3.6 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 95 | R+16.0 | R+1.4 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 99 | R+30.5 | R+4.8 |
| Fluvanna Co. | 0.36 | R+15.1 | 95 | R+14.8 | D+0.3 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 95 | R+67.9 | D+5.7 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 95 | R+27.9 | R+1.1 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| New Kent Co. | 0.32 | R+45.5 | 95 | R+48.4 | R+2.9 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 99 | R+37.9 | R+5.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 99 | R+66.2 | D+1.0 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 99 | D+72.2 | D+5.2 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 95 | R+70.7 | D+3.8 |
| Salem city | 0.29 | R+30.1 | 99 | R+30.1 | EVEN |
| Staunton city | 0.29 | R+0.2 | 99 | D+3.0 | D+3.2 |
| Fred’burg city | 0.29 | D+25.4 | 95 | D+20.7 | R+4.7 |
| Page Co. | 0.28 | R+61.6 | 95 | R+58.8 | D+2.8 |
| Rockbridge Co. | 0.28 | R+43.2 | 83 | R+56.2 | R+13.0 |
| Winchester city | 0.27 | D+1.4 | 95 | D+1.0 | R+0.5 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 95 | R+36.7 | R+1.9 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 95 | R+76.9 | D+1.9 |
| King William Co. | 0.24 | R+48.7 | 95 | R+47.8 | D+0.9 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 95 | R+16.4 | R+0.8 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 95 | R+76.1 | D+4.0 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+3.8 |
| Southampton Co. | 0.22 | R+28.5 | 95 | R+31.0 | R+2.5 |
| Pr. Edward Co. | 0.21 | R+4.6 | 95 | R+10.3 | R+5.7 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 95 | R+65.7 | D+3.2 |
| Floyd Co. | 0.21 | R+45.2 | 95 | R+41.5 | D+3.7 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 95 | R+26.5 | R+2.2 |
| Nelson Co. | 0.21 | R+15.6 | 95 | R+12.9 | D+2.7 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 95 | R+61.7 | R+4.4 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 72 | R+67.4 | R+4.8 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.7 | R+4.6 |
| Falls Church city | 0.20 | D+55.2 | 95 | D+53.9 | R+1.3 |
| Alleghany Co. | 0.18 | R+54.9 | 95 | R+50.5 | D+4.4 |
| Grayson Co. | 0.18 | R+72.2 | 99 | R+66.3 | D+6.0 |
| Madison Co. | 0.18 | R+42.8 | 95 | R+41.8 | D+1.0 |
| Buckingham Co. | 0.18 | R+23.7 | 95 | R+28.2 | R+4.5 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 87 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+49.8 | R+1.3 |
| Poquoson city | 0.18 | R+56.7 | 95 | R+57.2 | R+0.5 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 93 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 99 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 90 | R+64.9 | D+3.9 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 95 | R+18.6 | R+3.7 |
| Nottoway Co. | 0.16 | R+25.4 | 99 | R+30.6 | R+5.2 |
| Williamsburg city | 0.15 | D+31.6 | 95 | D+29.3 | R+2.3 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 95 | R+34.0 | D+1.8 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 95 | R+2.3 | R+2.7 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Charlotte Co. | 0.14 | R+34.7 | 85 | R+47.8 | R+13.1 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 99 | R+16.2 | R+5.3 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 84 | D+20.8 | R+2.6 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 94 | D+12.4 | R+4.2 |
| Lunenburg Co. | 0.13 | R+29.1 | 95 | R+32.6 | R+3.5 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 95 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 95 | R+28.9 | R+3.5 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 99 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 95 | R+21.1 | D+3.8 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 99 | D+4.3 | R+1.1 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 95 | R+2.2 | R+0.3 |
| Charles City Co. | 0.10 | D+9.4 | 95 | D+0.5 | R+8.9 |
| King & Queen Co. | 0.09 | R+31.6 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+0.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 95 | D+12.2 | R+3.4 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 88 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Craig Co. | 0.07 | R+72.7 | 94 | R+70.8 | D+1.9 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 99 | D+22.3 | R+0.2 |
| Galax city | 0.06 | R+50.9 | 99 | R+50.7 | D+0.2 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 95 | R+37.3 | R+2.8 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 95 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Emporia city | 0.05 | D+26.0 | 95 | D+17.6 | R+8.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+2.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 99 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |
One place that’s nearly fully reported is Henrico County, a suburban county bordering the city of Richmond. Youngkin was unlikely to actually carry Henrico, but what he needed to do was cut Democratic margins there. And that’s what he’s done: With 95 percent of the expected vote in, McAuliffe only leads by 18 points there, whereas Biden carried the county by 29 points. That puts Youngkin about 1 point ahead of the benchmark we set out for the county. And with other localities tending to run to the right of our benchmarks, that’s put Youngkin in an advantageous position as we await the rest of the vote tallies.
Yeah, that’s an important point, Alex and Sarah. What role did CRT play in Virginia? And what role did school closures play? And what role did other education/COVID-19 issues play? Maybe we need to get more specific when we discuss all this.
Also, Democrats saying repeatedly that CRT isn’t taught in most K-12 schools … doesn’t seem to be working as a campaign strategy.