FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

Also, Democrats saying repeatedly that CRT isn’t taught in most K-12 schools … doesn’t seem to be working as a campaign strategy.

Galen Druke

There are also issues, like whether or not to keep gifted and talented programs, that have played out in Virginia. That is related to racial inequity issues, but isn’t specifically CRT-related. Even in bright blue New York City, Democrats and progressives have had a difficult time pitching doing away with such programs to parents.

Sarah Frostenson

Oof, Micah with the million dollar question — that’s also incredibly difficult to disentangle.

As we’ve written extensively, both on this live blog and elsewhere, part of what’s happening in Virginia reflects national dissatisfaction with Biden. His approval rating is underwater nationally and in Virginia. That’s also translated to lower Democratic turnout tonight, per exit polls.

But the fact that education as an issue surged in importance toward the end of the race does also, I think, speak to lens through which to view tonight’s race. That is, when it comes to schools, much of the rhetoric Youngkin and the GOP has used has been wrapped up in racist rhetoric and dogwhistles, but also is more complex than that.

I think part of what we’re seeing tonight also reflects, in part, frustration parents had with COVID-19 policies in the state and decisions like getting rid of gifted and talented programs. Virginia was one of the more restrictive states when it came to closing the K-12 system during the 2020–21 school year. Polls haven’t done a great job of distilling these two competing factors when talking about “education,” but I can’t help but think both are muddled in this conversation. Something can be both a dogwhistle and more complex than a dogwhistle.


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