FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

I think there’s a whole constellation of education- and culture-related issues, of which CRT is one part. Things like school closures under COVID-19 potentially also matter a lot to voters.

Alex Samuels

It’s been predicted that Republicans next year will mirror Youngkin’s strategy of tapping into conservative, suburban parents’ fears about critical race theory and what they’re taught in schools. But if race becomes a major wedge issue, that could be dangerous for Democrats: Some polling already suggests that Biden’s approval rating is slipping among voters of color (who tend to lean Democratic) and if they’re not motivated to vote, while white suburban parents are … I don’t see how Democrats come back from that.

Micah Cohen

It’s still too early for “what this means,” but let’s dip our toes into that pool …

In terms of Virginia, I’m finding myself torn between “this is just normal thermostatic public opinion/movement against party in White House” and “Republicans have a powerful wedge issue in critical race theory and education that lets them dogwhistle without paying a price for it.”

Neither of those are good for Democrats, but do people have thoughts on which is the more accurate takeaway? And on the second one, are we talking about CRT as an issue specifically or education more broadly?


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