What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

Yeah, still, keep an eye on the margin in the New Jersey gubernatorial election. Murphy will probably still prevail based on what I’m seeing, but it looks like the margin could be in the single digits. If this happens, it would be a substantial underperformance from Biden’s 16-point margin there in 2020. This could be a sign that Democrats’ struggles aren’t just limited to the particulars of the Virginia gubernatorial race, but that the national political winds are pretty bad for them in general.

Actually, a correction on my earlier post about New Jersey: Hunterdon County’s Election Day precincts are almost fully reporting, but there are still lots of mail votes left to count, and those of course should help Murphy.

Don’t look now, but with 25 percent of the expected vote in, Murphy leads Ciattarelli in New Jersey just 50 percent to 49 percent. Hunterdon County is almost fully reporting, and Ciattarelli won it by 23 points; Trump won by just 4 points last year. If you apply that swing statewide, Ciattarelli would win by 2 points.