What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
That’s fair, Jacob — perhaps it would be better to characterize Cherfilus-McCormick as “anti-establishment.” She ran against Hastings twice and had the endorsement of Marianne Williamson, but not the usual progressive suspects, as you mentioned.
Nathaniel, I’d caution against categorizing Cherfilus-McCormick as a progressive in the way we typically think of progressives vs. moderates in Democratic primaries. Her big issue was universal basic income, but she’s not really in the mold of a Nina Turner or a Karen Carter Peterson, both of whom had serious progressive bona fides and ran aligned with Bernie Sanders et al. There was a candidate who tried to position himself as the true AOC-style progressive in the race, former state Rep. Omari Hardy, but he’s currently in sixth place.
Using our benchmark vote margins in each Virginia locality, Youngkin continues to outperform where he needs to be to win. It’s very important to note that many places have not reported absentee ballots, which we know will lean fairly Democratic and could shift vote tallies much closer to the 2020 benchmark margins, one way or the other. But Youngkin has to be pleased with the trends so far. One of those places where a lot of votes are left, though, is Fairfax County. The biggest locality in the state, Fairfax usually casts about 1 in 7 of the state’s votes, and it’s been very blue in recent years. Biden carried it by about 42 points in 2020, and with 70 percent of its expected vote reporting, Fairfax is going for McAuliffe by about 32 points — exactly the benchmark we set out for a 50-50 race statewide. However, given the trend in other big localities, McAuliffe needs to do more than break even in Fairfax to have a chance at winning.
Early returns are favorable for Youngkin — with caveats
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Fairfax Co. | 13.47% | D+32.4 | 70% | D+32.4 | EVEN |
| Pr. William Co. | 5.11 | D+17.2 | 53 | D+5.7 | R+11.5 |
| Va. Beach city | 5.10 | R+4.8 | 58 | R+18.7 | R+13.9 |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04 | D+15.2 | 95 | D+9.9 | R+5.3 |
| Chesterfield Co. | 4.57 | R+3.5 | 54 | R+11.5 | R+7.9 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 71 | D+9.4 | R+9.8 |
| Arlington Co. | 2.93 | D+54.7 | 91 | D+55.3 | D+0.6 |
| Newport News city | 1.82 | D+23.3 | 67 | D+9.9 | R+13.4 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 73 | R+20.6 | R+13.6 |
| Spotsylvania Co. | 1.69 | R+17.2 | 64 | R+24.9 | R+7.7 |
| Hanover Co. | 1.59 | R+37.6 | 59 | R+43.6 | R+5.9 |
| Hampton city | 1.48 | D+32.7 | 62 | D+21.4 | R+11.3 |
| Albemarle Co. | 1.45 | D+23.9 | 95 | D+26.9 | D+3.0 |
| Roanoke Co. | 1.28 | R+32.5 | 55 | R+30.8 | D+1.7 |
| Suffolk city | 1.11 | D+7.3 | 50 | R+9.4 | R+16.7 |
| James City Co. | 1.11 | R+5.4 | 51 | R+24.5 | R+19.1 |
| Frederick Co. | 1.09 | R+38.3 | 95 | R+38.9 | R+0.6 |
| Bedford Co. | 1.09 | R+59.3 | 83 | R+68.5 | R+9.2 |
| Montgomery Co. | 1.01 | R+4.4 | 67 | R+21.7 | R+17.2 |
| Portsmouth city | 1.00 | D+31.3 | 67 | D+20.0 | R+11.3 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 86 | R+61.9 | R+10.4 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 69 | R+44.4 | R+16.5 |
| Roanoke city | 0.97 | D+16.0 | 59 | D+1.0 | R+15.1 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 80 | R+66.8 | R+8.6 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 95 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Lynchburg city | 0.82 | R+7.6 | 66 | R+29.8 | R+22.2 |
| Pittsylvania Co. | 0.77 | R+50.6 | 95 | R+51.4 | R+0.8 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 67 | R+63.1 | R+10.0 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+4.4 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 95 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Henry Co. | 0.59 | R+39.7 | 73 | R+50.4 | R+10.7 |
| Charl’ville city | 0.54 | D+63.7 | 52 | D+61.9 | R+1.8 |
| Shenandoah Co. | 0.53 | R+51.6 | 52 | R+63.5 | R+11.9 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 95 | R+29.7 | R+0.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 95 | R+45.8 | D+0.7 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 95 | R+33.4 | D+0.2 |
| Warren Co. | 0.47 | R+46.4 | 72 | R+59.7 | R+13.2 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 99 | R+53.5 | D+2.0 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 95 | R+33.8 | R+1.8 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 95 | R+74.1 | D+4.1 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 95 | D+7.1 | R+5.0 |
| Halifax Co. | 0.41 | R+25.5 | 95 | R+29.7 | R+4.2 |
| Pr. George Co. | 0.39 | R+27.7 | 95 | R+30.6 | R+2.9 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 95 | R+49.7 | D+2.8 |
| Harrisonburg city | 0.38 | D+22.4 | 95 | D+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 77 | R+53.0 | R+10.6 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Accomack Co. | 0.38 | R+19.8 | 61 | R+48.8 | R+29.0 |
| Goochland Co. | 0.38 | R+30.0 | 95 | R+30.7 | R+0.6 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 70 | R+75.9 | R+3.4 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 95 | R+16.0 | R+1.4 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 99 | R+30.5 | R+4.8 |
| Fluvanna Co. | 0.36 | R+15.1 | 95 | R+22.5 | R+7.4 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 95 | R+67.9 | D+5.7 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 95 | R+28.2 | R+1.4 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| New Kent Co. | 0.32 | R+45.5 | 95 | R+46.0 | R+0.5 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 95 | R+37.9 | R+5.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 99 | R+66.2 | D+1.0 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 99 | D+72.2 | D+5.2 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 95 | R+70.7 | D+3.8 |
| Salem city | 0.29 | R+30.1 | 99 | R+30.1 | EVEN |
| Staunton city | 0.29 | R+0.2 | 99 | D+3.0 | D+3.2 |
| Fred’burg city | 0.29 | D+25.4 | 89 | D+15.1 | R+10.3 |
| Page Co. | 0.28 | R+61.6 | 80 | R+75.3 | R+13.7 |
| Rockbridge Co. | 0.28 | R+43.2 | 83 | R+56.2 | R+13.0 |
| Winchester city | 0.27 | D+1.4 | 94 | D+2.0 | D+0.6 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 95 | R+36.7 | R+1.9 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 95 | R+76.9 | D+1.9 |
| King William Co. | 0.24 | R+48.7 | 95 | R+47.8 | D+0.9 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 95 | R+16.4 | R+0.8 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 88 | R+80.5 | R+0.5 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+3.8 |
| Pr. Edward Co. | 0.21 | R+4.6 | 95 | R+10.3 | R+5.7 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 95 | R+65.7 | D+3.2 |
| Floyd Co. | 0.21 | R+45.2 | 61 | R+54.1 | R+8.9 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 95 | R+26.5 | R+2.2 |
| Nelson Co. | 0.21 | R+15.6 | 95 | R+12.9 | D+2.7 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 95 | R+61.7 | R+4.4 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 72 | R+67.4 | R+4.8 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.7 | R+4.6 |
| Falls Church city | 0.20 | D+55.2 | 95 | D+53.9 | R+1.3 |
| Alleghany Co. | 0.18 | R+54.9 | 90 | R+59.0 | R+4.0 |
| Grayson Co. | 0.18 | R+72.2 | 99 | R+66.3 | D+6.0 |
| Madison Co. | 0.18 | R+42.8 | 95 | R+40.9 | D+2.0 |
| Buckingham Co. | 0.18 | R+23.7 | 95 | R+32.7 | R+9.0 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 87 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+49.8 | R+1.3 |
| Poquoson city | 0.18 | R+56.7 | 70 | R+69.1 | R+12.4 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 93 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 99 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 90 | R+64.9 | D+3.9 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 95 | R+18.6 | R+3.7 |
| Williamsburg city | 0.15 | D+31.6 | 95 | D+29.3 | R+2.3 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 95 | R+34.0 | D+1.8 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 95 | R+2.7 | R+3.1 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Charlotte Co. | 0.14 | R+34.7 | 69 | R+54.6 | R+19.8 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 99 | R+16.2 | R+5.3 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 84 | D+20.8 | R+2.6 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 94 | D+12.4 | R+4.2 |
| Lunenburg Co. | 0.13 | R+29.1 | 95 | R+32.6 | R+3.5 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 95 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 95 | R+28.9 | R+3.5 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 99 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 95 | R+21.1 | D+3.8 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 99 | D+4.3 | R+1.1 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 95 | R+2.2 | R+0.3 |
| Charles City Co. | 0.10 | D+9.4 | 95 | D+0.5 | R+8.9 |
| King & Queen Co. | 0.09 | R+31.6 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+0.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 67 | D+4.9 | R+10.6 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 88 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 99 | D+22.3 | R+0.2 |
| Galax city | 0.06 | R+50.9 | 99 | R+50.7 | D+0.2 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 95 | R+37.3 | R+2.8 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 95 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Emporia city | 0.05 | D+26.0 | 95 | D+17.6 | R+8.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+2.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 99 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |